OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Trevor Peek 60% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

Kurtis Campbell
EnglandEngland

Kurtis Campbell

“The Pink Panther”

Unranked · 8-1 · wrestler · Switch · 24 · IQ B 69

MMA Academy Liverpool · England

VS
Trevor Peek
USAUSA

Trevor Peek

Unranked · 9-3 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C+ 66

Agoge Combatives · USA

Kurtis Campbell

40.2%

Trevor Peek

59.8%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Peek 60 — the tape favors pocket striker

Trevor Peek is the model side at 59.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Campbell (ground 66) into Peek (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Campbell 66 (C+) vs Peek 33 (D). Campbell brings 8.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Peek's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Campbell

    Campbell 66 (C+) vs Peek 33 (D). Campbell brings 8.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Peek's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Peek

    Peek 67 (C+) vs Campbell 46 (D). When the shot comes, Peek stuffs it at 79% — Campbell is at 50%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Peek

    Peek 64 (C+) vs Campbell 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Peek (4.4 SLpM at 58%).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Peek

    Peek 66 (C+) vs Campbell 50 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Peek.

Path · Campbell

Campbell has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Peek defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Peek

Peek has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Peek is built as: Pocket striker. Campbell is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Campbell — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Campbell 66 (C+) vs Peek 33 (D). Campbell brings 8.8 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Peek's 79% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Peek 67 (C+) vs Campbell 46 (D). When the shot comes, Peek stuffs it at 79% — Campbell is at 50%. Punching agility: Peek 64 (C+) vs Campbell 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Peek (4.4 SLpM at 58%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CampbellTraitPeek
69 B
IQ
66 C+
66 C+
Ground
33 D
64 C+
Defense
66 C+
49 D
Counter
60 C+
50 C
Reaction
66 C+
46 D
Agility
64 C+
46 D
TD react
67 C+
80 B+
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Decision
48%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

13%

R3

12%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Campbell (ground 66) into Peek (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    -0.77 vs 1.39 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Peek

  • Ground game (tape)

    66 vs 33

    Campbell

  • Damage ratio

    0.77 vs 1.45 landed/absorbed

    Peek

  • Takedown reaction

    50% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Peek

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Campbell

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.53 vs 4.51

    Peek

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Campbell

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Peek

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Peek

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 55%

    Peek

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 60

    Peek

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 59%

    Campbell

  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Campbell

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 70.0"

    Campbell

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Campbell (ground 66) into Peek (TD reaction 67).

    Campbell

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Peek

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 51% vs 79%

    Peek

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 31

    Campbell

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Peek

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Campbell

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Peek

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Peek

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Campbell

Tape

CampbellMetricPeek
3.50SLpM4.39
3.38SApM3.06
46%Str Acc58%
61%Str Def59%
8.76TD Avg1.45
40%TD Acc50%
50%TD Def79%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.31KD/150.43
6'0"Reach5'10"
24Age31

Kurtis Campbell

L

Fighter 4702589

KO/TKO · R2 0:31

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 5110465

KO/TKO · R1 1:20

Oct 1, 2025
W

Fighter 4913045

Submission · R2 0:44

Mar 1, 2025
W

Fighter 5310114

KO/TKO · R1 2:49

Nov 30, 2024
W

Fighter 5310115

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Sep 7, 2024
W

Fighter 5310117

KO/TKO · R1 0:45

Mar 9, 2024

Trevor Peek

L

Fighter 4917145

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 7, 2024
L

Fighter 4786358

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 6, 2024
W

Fighter 4330061

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 21, 2023
L

Fighter 4040926

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 24, 2023
W

Fighter 4335947

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

Feb 25, 2023
W

Fighter 5092399

KO/TKO · R2 2:37

Sep 14, 2022

Your pick

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