UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Michael Page 54% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev
Michael Page
“Venom”
Unranked · 25-3 · striker · Switch · 39 · IQ B 73
London Shootfighters
UzbekistanNursulton Ruziboev
“Black”
Unranked · 37-9-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 64
Shahrixon MMA · Uzbekistan
Michael Page
54.0%
Nursulton Ruziboev
46.0%
Model win probability · confidence 62%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Page 54 — the tape favors pocket striker
Michael Page is the model side at 54.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Page (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Ruziboev 50 (D) vs Page 16 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Page's 71% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
RuziboevRuziboev 50 (D) vs Page 16 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Page's 71% takedown defense.
- 02
Durability
PagePage 90 (A) vs Ruziboev 69 (B). Page has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ruziboev 0.
- 03
Counter punching
PagePage 50 (C) vs Ruziboev 32 (D). Page's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ruziboev's entries.
- 04
Striking defense
PagePage 84 (A) vs Ruziboev 66 (C+). Page absorbs 1.33/min at 65% defense; Ruziboev is a softer target at 0.60 SApM.
Path · Page
Page has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Ruziboev
Ruziboev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Page defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Page is built as: Pocket striker. Ruziboev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Page — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Ruziboev 50 (D) vs Page 16 (D). Ruziboev brings 1.4 TD/15 and 21 sub wins into Page's 71% takedown defense. Durability: Page 90 (A) vs Ruziboev 69 (B). Page has been finished by strikes 0 times; Ruziboev 0. Counter punching: Page 50 (C) vs Ruziboev 32 (D). Page's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ruziboev's entries.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
18%
R2
13%
R3
15%
Dist
54%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Page (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking defense
66% vs 42%
PageGround game (tape)
16 vs 50
RuziboevGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
RuziboevFight IQ
B 73 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
PageCounter punching
50 vs 32
PagePocket defense (tape)
A vs C+
PageDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
PageStriking efficiency
57% vs 49%
PageTakedown reaction
71% vs 80% hips on the shot
RuziboevTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
PageAge-adjusted curve
39 vs 32
RuziboevReach / length
79.0" vs 76.0"
PageStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Ruziboev (ground 50) into Page (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
RuziboevDamage ratio
1.70 vs 1.80 landed/absorbed
RuziboevStriking differential
0.84 vs 0.96 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
RuziboevRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
RuziboevTakedown mismatch
TD def 73% vs 82%
RuziboevPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
PageStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 66 vs 61
PageCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
PageOutput (SLpM)
2.04 vs 2.16
RuziboevLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
RuziboevChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Page
Tape
Michael Page
Fighter 5088916
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Jared Cannonier
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4421784
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4738092
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 3943695
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 3076910
KO/TKO · R1 0:26
Nursulton Ruziboev
Fighter 5211225
Submission · R1 3:58
Fighter 4685871
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 2478987
KO/TKO · R2 0:33
Fighter 4024714
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5060467
KO/TKO · R1 3:18
Brunno Ferreira
KO/TKO · R1 1:17
Your pick
Desk briefing
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