OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Steven Asplund 91% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Steven Asplund / Decision - Unanimous)

Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat

Steven Asplund
USAUSA

Steven Asplund

“Concrete”

Unranked · 8-2 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 51

Minnesota Top Team · USA

VS
Guilherme Pat
BrazilBrazil

Guilherme Pat

“Kong”

Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 64

Brazil

Steven Asplund

91.0%

Guilherme Pat

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Asplund 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Steven Asplund is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Asplund 79 (B+) vs Pat 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Asplund (10.1 SLpM at 53%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Asplund

    Asplund 79 (B+) vs Pat 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Asplund (10.1 SLpM at 53%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Pat

    Pat 52 (C) vs Asplund 31 (D). Pat's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Asplund's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Pat

    Pat 69 (B) vs Asplund 55 (C). When the shot comes, Pat stuffs it at 85% — Asplund is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Pat

    Pat 64 (C+) vs Asplund 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pat (C+ vs C).

Path · Asplund

Volume. Asplund wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Pat a clean reset.

Path · Pat

Pat wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Asplund a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pat attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Asplund is built as: Volume pressure striker. Pat is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Pat — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Asplund 79 (B+) vs Pat 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Asplund (10.1 SLpM at 53%). Counter punching: Pat 52 (C) vs Asplund 31 (D). Pat's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Asplund's entries. Takedown reaction: Pat 69 (B) vs Asplund 55 (C). When the shot comes, Pat stuffs it at 85% — Asplund is at 85%.

The finish path leans strikes (50% KO/TKO vs 6% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pat attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AsplundTraitPat
51 C
IQ
64 C+
12 D
Ground
12 D
71 B
Defense
62 C+
31 D
Counter
52 C
67 C+
Reaction
65 C+
79 B+
Agility
52 C
55 C
TD react
69 B
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
50%
Submission
6%
Decision
45%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

15%

R3

16%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    8.65 vs -0.96 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Asplund

  • Damage ratio

    7.18 vs 0.74 landed/absorbed

    Asplund

  • Output (SLpM)

    10.05 vs 2.70

    Asplund

  • Striking defense

    48% vs 63%

    Pat

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pat

  • Counter punching

    31 vs 52

    Pat

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Asplund

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 65%

    Pat

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Pat

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Asplund

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 81.0"

    Pat

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Asplund

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 32

    Asplund

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Asplund

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Asplund

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pat

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Asplund

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Asplund

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Asplund

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Asplund

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Asplund

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Asplund

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Asplund

Tape

AsplundMetricPat
10.05SLpM2.70
1.40SApM3.66
53%Str Acc65%
48%Str Def63%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.56KD/150.10
6'6"Reach6'9"
28Age32

Steven Asplund

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Guilherme Pat

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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