UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Welterweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Santiago Ponzinibbio 57% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Sam Patterson / KO/TKO)
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
ArgentinaSantiago Ponzinibbio
“Argentine Dagger”
Unranked · 31-10 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C+ 64
American Top Team · Argentina
EnglandSam Patterson
Unranked · 15-3-1 · grappler · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 63
Team Crossface · England
Santiago Ponzinibbio
56.9%
Sam Patterson
43.1%
Model win probability · confidence 50%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Ponzinibbio 57 — the tape favors pocket striker
Santiago Ponzinibbio is the model side at 56.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Patterson (ground 57) into Ponzinibbio (TD reaction 68). Ground game is the clearest separator: Patterson 57 (C) vs Ponzinibbio 24 (D). Patterson brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Ponzinibbio's 83% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
PattersonPatterson 57 (C) vs Ponzinibbio 24 (D). Patterson brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Ponzinibbio's 83% takedown defense.
- 02
Durability
PonzinibbioPonzinibbio 85 (A) vs Patterson 79 (B+). Ponzinibbio has been finished by strikes 0 times; Patterson 0.
- 03
Timing & reaction
PattersonPatterson 68 (C+) vs Ponzinibbio 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Patterson.
- 04
Punching agility
PonzinibbioPonzinibbio 49 (D) vs Patterson 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Ponzinibbio (4.8 SLpM at 42%).
Path · Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Patterson
Patterson has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ponzinibbio defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Ponzinibbio is built as: Pocket striker. Patterson is built as: Submission hunter. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Ponzinibbio — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Patterson 57 (C) vs Ponzinibbio 24 (D). Patterson brings 0.8 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Ponzinibbio's 83% takedown defense. Durability: Ponzinibbio 85 (A) vs Patterson 79 (B+). Ponzinibbio has been finished by strikes 0 times; Patterson 0. Timing & reaction: Patterson 68 (C+) vs Ponzinibbio 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Patterson.
The finish path leans strikes (33% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
26%
R2
15%
R3
15%
Dist
44%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.2 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Patterson (ground 57) into Ponzinibbio (TD reaction 68).
Striking differential
1.85 vs -1.06 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
PonzinibbioGround game (tape)
24 vs 57
PattersonDamage ratio
1.63 vs 0.71 landed/absorbed
PonzinibbioOutput (SLpM)
4.78 vs 2.62
PonzinibbioGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
PattersonReach / length
73.0" vs 78.0"
PattersonAge-adjusted curve
39 vs 30
PattersonStriking defense
58% vs 63%
PattersonPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
PonzinibbioStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Patterson (ground 57) into Ponzinibbio (TD reaction 68).
PattersonDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
PonzinibbioTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
PattersonCounter punching
37 vs 41
PattersonPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
PonzinibbioStriking efficiency
42% vs 45%
PattersonRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
PattersonCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
PonzinibbioTakedown reaction
83% vs 82% hips on the shot
PonzinibbioFight IQ
C+ 64 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
PonzinibbioTakedown mismatch
TD def 83% vs 82%
PonzinibbioStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
PonzinibbioLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
PonzinibbioChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Ponzinibbio
Tape
Santiago Ponzinibbio
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Sam Patterson
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.