OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alessandro Costa 55% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Alessandro Costa / Submission)

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

Alessandro Costa
BrazilBrazil

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”

Unranked · 17-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 66

Brazilian Warriors BJJ · Brazil

VS
Cody Durden
USAUSA

Cody Durden

“Custom Made”

Unranked · 18-11-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 35 · IQ C 52

American Top Team Atlanta · USA

Alessandro Costa

54.9%

Cody Durden

45.1%

Model win probability · confidence 48%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Costa 55 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alessandro Costa is the model side at 54.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Durden (ground 70) into Costa (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Durden 70 (B) vs Costa 34 (D). Durden brings 4.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Durden

    Durden 70 (B) vs Costa 34 (D). Durden brings 4.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Costa

    Costa 68 (C+) vs Durden 50 (D). When the shot comes, Costa stuffs it at 82% — Durden is at 69%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Costa

    Costa 66 (C+) vs Durden 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Costa (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Costa

    Costa 68 (B) vs Durden 55 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Costa.

Path · Costa

Costa has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Durden

Durden has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Costa defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Costa is built as: Pocket striker. Durden is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +14 toward Costa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Durden 70 (B) vs Costa 34 (D). Durden brings 4.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Costa 68 (C+) vs Durden 50 (D). When the shot comes, Costa stuffs it at 82% — Durden is at 69%. Fight IQ: Costa 66 (C+) vs Durden 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Costa (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans the mat (44% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CostaTraitDurden
66 C+
IQ
52 C
34 D
Ground
70 B
65 C+
Defense
63 C+
49 D
Counter
44 D
68 B
Reaction
55 C
57 C
Agility
44 D
68 C+
TD react
50 D
80 B+
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
33%
Submission
44%
Decision
23%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

33%

R2

21%

R3

23%

Dist

23%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Durden (ground 70) into Costa (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 70

    Durden

  • Striking differential

    0.61 vs -0.23 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Costa

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 52 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Costa

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Durden

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Costa

  • Damage ratio

    1.19 vs 0.93 landed/absorbed

    Costa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Costa

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Costa

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.86 vs 3.24

    Costa

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Costa

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 44

    Costa

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Durden (ground 70) into Costa (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Durden

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 53%

    Durden

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 62%

    Durden

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 35

    Costa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 69%

    Costa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Durden

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Costa

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Costa

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 67.0"

    Costa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Costa

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Costa

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Costa

Tape

CostaMetricDurden
3.86SLpM3.24
3.25SApM3.47
51%Str Acc53%
60%Str Def62%
0.77TD Avg3.99
27%TD Acc49%
82%TD Def69%
0.38Sub Avg0.65
0.51KD/150.10
5'7"Reach5'7"
30Age35

Alessandro Costa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Cody Durden

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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