OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Tommy McMillen 80% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Tommy McMillen / KO/TKO)

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes

Tommy McMillen
USAUSA

Tommy McMillen

“Gun”

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 75

Red Hawk Academy · USA

VS
Alberto Montes
VenezuelaVenezuela

Alberto Montes

“The Promise”

Unranked · 12-2 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B 72

The Goat Shed · Venezuela

Tommy McMillen

80.5%

Alberto Montes

19.5%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McMillen 80 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Tommy McMillen is the model side at 80.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Montes (ground 53) into McMillen (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Montes 53 (C) vs McMillen 20 (D). Montes brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into McMillen's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Montes

    Montes 53 (C) vs McMillen 20 (D). Montes brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into McMillen's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    McMillen

    McMillen 77 (B+) vs Montes 67 (C+). Hand speed / output lean McMillen (13.5 SLpM at 51%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Montes

    Montes 45 (D) vs McMillen 37 (D). Montes's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McMillen's entries.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Montes

    Montes 75 (B) vs McMillen 70 (B). Montes has been finished by strikes 0 times; McMillen 0.

Path · McMillen

McMillen has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Montes

Montes has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make McMillen defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Montes attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. McMillen is built as: Volume pressure striker. Montes is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward McMillen — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Montes 53 (C) vs McMillen 20 (D). Montes brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into McMillen's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: McMillen 77 (B+) vs Montes 67 (C+). Hand speed / output lean McMillen (13.5 SLpM at 51%). Counter punching: Montes 45 (D) vs McMillen 37 (D). Montes's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against McMillen's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (35% KO/TKO vs 33% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Montes attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

McMillenTraitMontes
75 B
IQ
72 B
20 D
Ground
53 C
66 C+
Defense
69 B
37 D
Counter
45 D
62 C+
Reaction
65 C+
77 B+
Agility
67 C+
69 B
TD react
69 B
70 B
Chin
75 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
35%
Submission
33%
Decision
32%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

18%

R3

18%

Dist

32%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Montes (ground 53) into McMillen (TD reaction 69).

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 1.91 landed/absorbed

    McMillen

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs 2.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McMillen

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Montes

  • Ground game (tape)

    20 vs 53

    Montes

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 5.26

    McMillen

  • Striking defense

    44% vs 57%

    Montes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    McMillen

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 63%

    Montes

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 69.0"

    McMillen

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McMillen

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 45

    Montes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McMillen

  • Fight IQ

    B 75 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    McMillen

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Montes (ground 53) into McMillen (TD reaction 69).

    Montes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Montes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Montes

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 32

    McMillen

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Montes

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 54 vs 50

    McMillen

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    McMillen

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 85%

    McMillen

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    McMillen

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    McMillen

Tape

McMillenMetricMontes
13.54SLpM5.26
1.40SApM2.76
51%Str Acc63%
42%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg6.77
0.51KD/150.10
6'2"Reach5'9"
28Age32

Tommy McMillen

W

Fighter 4571450

KO/TKO · R3 3:29

Jul 19, 2026
W

Fighter 5157247

KO/TKO · R1 3:57

Apr 5, 2026
W

Fighter 5295176

Decision - Majority · R3 5:00

Sep 3, 2025
W

Fighter 5044369

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:58

Apr 26, 2025
W

Fighter 5291091

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 1:10

Dec 14, 2024
W

Fighter 4913864

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 2:13

Apr 12, 2024

Alberto Montes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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