OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Terrance McKinney 62% · Submission · Round 1 · scored miss (King Green / KO/TKO)

King Green vs Terrance McKinney

King Green
USAUSA

King Green

Unranked · 36-17-1 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C+ 62

Pinnacle MMA · USA

VS
Terrance McKinney
USAUSA

Terrance McKinney

“T. Wrecks”

Unranked · 18-9 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C 59

Fusion X-Cel · USA

King Green

37.9%

Terrance McKinney

62.1%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McKinney 62 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Terrance McKinney is the model side at 62.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Green (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: McKinney 78 (B+) vs Green 40 (D). McKinney brings 3.3 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Green's 80% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    McKinney

    McKinney 78 (B+) vs Green 40 (D). McKinney brings 3.3 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Green's 80% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    McKinney

    McKinney 80 (B+) vs Green 67 (C+). Hand speed / output lean McKinney (6.5 SLpM at 59%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Green

    Green 62 (C+) vs McKinney 54 (C). When the shot comes, Green stuffs it at 80% — McKinney is at 72%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    McKinney

    McKinney 43 (D) vs Green 36 (D). McKinney's return is the live one (0.52 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Green's entries.

Path · Green

Green has to stuff the first takedown (62 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · McKinney

McKinney has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Green defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. McKinney is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Green is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Green — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: McKinney 78 (B+) vs Green 40 (D). McKinney brings 3.3 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Green's 80% takedown defense. Punching agility: McKinney 80 (B+) vs Green 67 (C+). Hand speed / output lean McKinney (6.5 SLpM at 59%). Takedown reaction: Green 62 (C+) vs McKinney 54 (C). When the shot comes, Green stuffs it at 80% — McKinney is at 72%.

The finish path leans the mat (44% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GreenTraitMcKinney
62 C+
IQ
59 C
40 D
Ground
78 B+
73 B
Defense
73 B
36 D
Counter
43 D
58 C
Reaction
64 C+
67 C+
Agility
80 B+
62 C+
TD react
54 C
84 A
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
37%
Submission
44%
Decision
20%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

36%

R2

22%

R3

23%

Dist

20%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Green (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    40 vs 78

    McKinney

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McKinney

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McKinney

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Green

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 31

    McKinney

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 43

    McKinney

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 73.5"

    McKinney

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Green

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Green

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: McKinney (ground 78) into Green (TD reaction 62). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    McKinney

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 59%

    McKinney

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    McKinney

  • Damage ratio

    2.76 vs 2.83 landed/absorbed

    McKinney

  • Striking differential

    4.12 vs 4.22 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McKinney

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 72%

    Green

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.46 vs 6.53

    McKinney

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Green

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 55%

    Green

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    McKinney

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McKinney

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Green

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Green

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Green

Tape

GreenMetricMcKinney
6.46SLpM6.53
2.34SApM2.31
56%Str Acc59%
55%Str Def55%
1.33TD Avg3.31
43%TD Acc40%
80%TD Def72%
0.31Sub Avg2.07
0.25KD/150.52
5'11"Reach6'2"
39Age31

King Green

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Terrance McKinney

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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