OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Valter Walker 54% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Valter Walker / Submission)

Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen

Valter Walker
BrazilBrazil

Valter Walker

“The Clean Monster”

Unranked · 16-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B+ 77

GOR MMA · Brazil

VS
Thomas Petersen
USAUSA

Thomas Petersen

“The Train”

Unranked · 11-5 · hybrid · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 67

Spartan MMA · USA

Valter Walker

53.9%

Thomas Petersen

46.1%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Walker 54 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Valter Walker is the model side at 53.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Walker (ground 94) into Petersen (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Walker 94 (A+) vs Petersen 52 (C). Walker brings 5.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Petersen's 73% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Walker

    Walker 94 (A+) vs Petersen 52 (C). Walker brings 5.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Petersen's 73% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Petersen

    Petersen 59 (C) vs Walker 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Petersen (3.1 SLpM at 71%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Petersen

    Petersen 57 (C) vs Walker 47 (D). Petersen's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Walker's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Walker

    Walker 77 (B+) vs Petersen 67 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Walker (B+ vs C+).

Path · Walker

Walker has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Petersen defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Petersen

Petersen has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Walker is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Petersen is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Walker — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Walker 94 (A+) vs Petersen 52 (C). Walker brings 5.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Petersen's 73% takedown defense. Punching agility: Petersen 59 (C) vs Walker 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Petersen (3.1 SLpM at 71%). Counter punching: Petersen 57 (C) vs Walker 47 (D). Petersen's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Walker's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (40% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WalkerTraitPetersen
77 B+
IQ
67 C+
94 A+
Ground
52 C
61 C+
Defense
63 C+
47 D
Counter
57 C
56 C
Reaction
60 C
47 D
Agility
59 C
60 C+
TD react
59 C
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
40%
Decision
28%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

20%

R3

24%

Dist

28%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Walker (ground 94) into Petersen (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    94 vs 52

    Walker

  • Striking differential

    -2.01 vs -0.41 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Petersen

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Walker

  • Damage ratio

    0.49 vs 0.88 landed/absorbed

    Petersen

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 77 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Walker

  • Striking efficiency

    62% vs 71%

    Petersen

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.92 vs 3.10

    Petersen

  • Reach / length

    78.5" vs 74.0"

    Walker

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 57

    Petersen

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Walker

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Petersen

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Walker (ground 94) into Petersen (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Walker

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 62%

    Walker

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Petersen

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Petersen

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Petersen

  • Takedown reaction

    63% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Walker

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 31

    Walker

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 63% vs 73%

    Petersen

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Petersen

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Walker

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Walker

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Walker

Tape

WalkerMetricPetersen
1.92SLpM3.10
3.93SApM3.51
62%Str Acc71%
64%Str Def62%
5.39TD Avg3.01
69%TD Acc43%
63%TD Def73%
3.59Sub Avg0.38
0.10KD/150.10
6'7"Reach6'2"
28Age31

Valter Walker

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Thomas Petersen

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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