OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Catch Weight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alessandro Costa 52% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Alessandro Costa / KO/TKO)

Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa

Matt Schnell
USAUSA

Matt Schnell

“Danger”

Unranked · 17-11 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 52

Fortis MMA · USA

VS
Alessandro Costa
BrazilBrazil

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”

Unranked · 17-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 66

Brazilian Warriors BJJ · Brazil

Matt Schnell

47.7%

Alessandro Costa

52.3%

Model win probability · confidence 45%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Costa 52 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alessandro Costa is the model side at 52.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Schnell (ground 51) into Costa (TD reaction 68). Ground game is the clearest separator: Schnell 51 (C) vs Costa 34 (D). Schnell brings 0.6 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Schnell

    Schnell 51 (C) vs Costa 34 (D). Schnell brings 0.6 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Costa

    Costa 66 (C+) vs Schnell 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Costa (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Costa

    Costa 57 (C) vs Schnell 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Costa (3.9 SLpM at 51%).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Costa

    Costa 68 (C+) vs Schnell 57 (C). When the shot comes, Costa stuffs it at 82% — Schnell is at 83%.

Path · Schnell

Schnell has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Costa defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Costa

Costa has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Costa is built as: Pocket striker. Schnell is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +14 toward Costa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Schnell 51 (C) vs Costa 34 (D). Schnell brings 0.6 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Costa's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Costa 66 (C+) vs Schnell 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Costa (C+ vs C). Punching agility: Costa 57 (C) vs Schnell 46 (D). Hand speed / output lean Costa (3.9 SLpM at 51%).

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SchnellTraitCosta
52 C
IQ
66 C+
51 C
Ground
34 D
65 C+
Defense
65 C+
39 D
Counter
49 D
58 C
Reaction
68 B
46 D
Agility
57 C
57 C
TD react
68 C+
77 B+
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
37%
Submission
37%
Decision
26%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

20%

R3

22%

Dist

26%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Schnell (ground 51) into Costa (TD reaction 68).

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Costa

  • Ground game (tape)

    51 vs 34

    Schnell

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Costa

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 49

    Costa

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Schnell

  • Striking differential

    0.89 vs 0.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Schnell

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Costa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Costa

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 67.0"

    Schnell

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Costa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 30

    Costa

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Schnell (ground 51) into Costa (TD reaction 68).

    Schnell

  • Damage ratio

    1.28 vs 1.19 landed/absorbed

    Schnell

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 51%

    Costa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Costa

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.07 vs 3.86

    Schnell

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 60%

    Costa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Schnell

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Schnell

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 82%

    Schnell

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Schnell

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Schnell

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Schnell

Tape

SchnellMetricCosta
4.07SLpM3.86
3.18SApM3.25
48%Str Acc51%
60%Str Def60%
0.60TD Avg0.77
45%TD Acc27%
83%TD Def82%
1.21Sub Avg0.38
0.10KD/150.51
5'10"Reach5'7"
36Age30

Matt Schnell

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alessandro Costa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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