OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Santiago Luna 91% · Submission · Round 1 · scored miss (Bryce Mitchell / Submission)

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna

Bryce Mitchell
USAUSA

Bryce Mitchell

“Thug Nasty”

Unranked · 19-4 · hybrid · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 64

Barata MMA · USA

VS
Santiago Luna
MexicoMexico

Santiago Luna

“Border Boy”

Unranked · 8-1 · striker · Orthodox · 22 · IQ C 59

Entram Gym · Mexico

Bryce Mitchell

9.3%

Santiago Luna

90.7%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Luna 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Santiago Luna is the model side at 90.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Mitchell into a striker with 68% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Luna 77 (B+) vs Mitchell 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Luna (8.2 SLpM at 58%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Luna

    Luna 77 (B+) vs Mitchell 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Luna (8.2 SLpM at 58%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Mitchell

    Mitchell 55 (C) vs Luna 33 (D). Mitchell's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Luna's entries.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Luna

    Luna 73 (B) vs Mitchell 62 (C+). Luna absorbs 1.73/min at 52% defense; Mitchell is a softer target at 3.81 SApM.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Luna

    Luna 81 (B+) vs Mitchell 71 (B). Luna brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Mitchell's 72% takedown defense.

Path · Mitchell

Mitchell has to stuff the first takedown (51 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Luna

Luna has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Mitchell defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Mitchell attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Luna is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Mitchell is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Mitchell — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Luna 77 (B+) vs Mitchell 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Luna (8.2 SLpM at 58%). Counter punching: Mitchell 55 (C) vs Luna 33 (D). Mitchell's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Luna's entries. Striking defense: Luna 73 (B) vs Mitchell 62 (C+). Luna absorbs 1.73/min at 52% defense; Mitchell is a softer target at 3.81 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (49% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Mitchell attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MitchellTraitLuna
64 C+
IQ
59 C
71 B
Ground
81 B+
62 C+
Defense
73 B
55 C
Counter
33 D
60 C
Reaction
58 C
54 C
Agility
77 B+
51 C
TD react
50 D
77 B+
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
49%
Decision
23%

Wrestling entries and control time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

21%

R3

24%

Dist

23%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Mitchell into a striker with 68% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.54 vs 6.47 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Luna

  • Damage ratio

    0.60 vs 4.74 landed/absorbed

    Luna

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.27 vs 8.20

    Luna

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 52%

    Mitchell

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 33

    Mitchell

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 58%

    Mitchell

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Luna

  • Ground game (tape)

    71 vs 81

    Luna

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Luna

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Luna

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Mitchell

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 74.0"

    Luna

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Mitchell into a striker with 68% takedown defense. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Mitchell

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Luna

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 22

    Luna

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Luna

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Mitchell

  • Takedown reaction

    72% vs 68% hips on the shot

    Mitchell

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 72% vs 68%

    Mitchell

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Luna

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Mitchell

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Mitchell

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Mitchell

Tape

MitchellMetricLuna
2.27SLpM8.20
3.81SApM1.73
72%Str Acc58%
63%Str Def52%
3.24TD Avg4.21
36%TD Acc83%
72%TD Def68%
1.19Sub Avg0.84
0.12KD/150.31
5'10"Reach6'2"
31Age22

Bryce Mitchell

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Santiago Luna

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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