OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Christian Leroy Duncan 66% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Christian Leroy Duncan / Decision - Unanimous)

Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Jared Cannonier
USAUSA

Jared Cannonier

“The Killa Gorilla”

#5 · 18-10 · striker · Switch · 42 · IQ C+ 61

MMA LAB · USA

VS
Christian Leroy Duncan
EnglandEngland

Christian Leroy Duncan

“CLD”

Unranked · 15-2 · striker · Switch · 31 · IQ C+ 67

Range MMA Academy · England

Jared Cannonier

34.0%

Christian Leroy Duncan

66.0%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Duncan 66 — the tape favors pocket striker

Christian Leroy Duncan is the model side at 66.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Duncan 74 (B) vs Cannonier 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Duncan (4.5 SLpM at 64%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Duncan

    Duncan 74 (B) vs Cannonier 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Duncan (4.5 SLpM at 64%).

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Duncan

    Duncan 73 (B) vs Cannonier 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Duncan.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Duncan

    Duncan 66 (C+) vs Cannonier 52 (C). Duncan absorbs 3.04/min at 59% defense; Cannonier is a softer target at 3.97 SApM.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Cannonier

    Cannonier 81 (B+) vs Duncan 68 (B). When the shot comes, Cannonier stuffs it at 100% — Duncan is at 83%.

Path · Cannonier

Cannonier has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Duncan defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Duncan

Duncan wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Cannonier a long look at takedown reaction.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Duncan is built as: Pocket striker. Cannonier is built as: Power striker — elite sprawl, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Duncan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Duncan 74 (B) vs Cannonier 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Duncan (4.5 SLpM at 64%). Timing & reaction: Duncan 73 (B) vs Cannonier 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Duncan. Striking defense: Duncan 66 (C+) vs Cannonier 52 (C). Duncan absorbs 3.04/min at 59% defense; Cannonier is a softer target at 3.97 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (52% KO/TKO vs 8% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CannonierTraitDuncan
61 C+
IQ
67 C+
26 D
Ground
18 D
52 C
Defense
66 C+
59 C
Counter
62 C+
57 C
Reaction
73 B
50 C
Agility
74 B
81 B+
TD react
68 B
77 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
52%
Submission
8%
Decision
40%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

15%

R3

14%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -0.09 vs 1.41 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Duncan

  • Damage ratio

    0.98 vs 1.46 landed/absorbed

    Duncan

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 64%

    Duncan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 3/0 UFC rows

    Duncan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Duncan

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Cannonier

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Duncan

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 59%

    Duncan

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 18

    Cannonier

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Duncan

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Duncan

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 72 vs 50

    Cannonier

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cannonier

  • Age-adjusted curve

    42 vs 31

    Duncan

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.91 vs 4.45

    Duncan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Duncan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Cannonier

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 79.0"

    Duncan

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 62

    Duncan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Duncan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 83%

    Cannonier

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Cannonier

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cannonier

Tape

CannonierMetricDuncan
4.25SLpM4.45
3.97SApM3.04
53%Str Acc64%
53%Str Def59%
0.77TD Avg0.43
45%TD Acc20%
100%TD Def83%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.50KD/150.82
6'6"Reach6'7"
42Age31

Jared Cannonier

L

Michael Page

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 17, 2025
W

Gregory Rodrigues

KO/TKO · R4 0:21

Feb 16, 2025
L

Israel Adesanya

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jul 3, 2022

Christian Leroy Duncan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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