OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ryan Gandra 85% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Ryan Gandra / KO/TKO)

Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese

Ryan Gandra
BrazilBrazil

Ryan Gandra

“Problema”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 68

Flavio Baiano Team · Brazil

VS
Zach Reese
USAUSA

Zach Reese

“Savage”

Unranked · 10-4 · striker · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 67

Bangtao Muay Thai · USA

Ryan Gandra

85.0%

Zach Reese

15.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gandra 85 — the tape favors power striker

Ryan Gandra is the model side at 85.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Reese (ground 71) into Gandra (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Reese 71 (B) vs Gandra 14 (D). Reese brings 2.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gandra's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Reese

    Reese 71 (B) vs Gandra 14 (D). Reese brings 2.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gandra's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Gandra

    Gandra 80 (B+) vs Reese 62 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Gandra (11.7 SLpM at 51%).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Reese

    Reese 84 (A) vs Gandra 67 (C+). Reese has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gandra 0.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Gandra

    Gandra 66 (C+) vs Reese 61 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gandra.

Path · Gandra

Gandra has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Reese

Reese has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Gandra defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Reese attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Gandra is built as: Power striker. Reese is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Gandra — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Reese 71 (B) vs Gandra 14 (D). Reese brings 2.8 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Gandra's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Gandra 80 (B+) vs Reese 62 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Gandra (11.7 SLpM at 51%). Durability: Reese 84 (A) vs Gandra 67 (C+). Reese has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gandra 0.

The finish path leans strikes (43% KO/TKO vs 20% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Reese attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GandraTraitReese
68 C+
IQ
67 C+
14 D
Ground
71 B
67 C+
Defense
66 C+
45 D
Counter
49 D
66 C+
Reaction
61 C+
80 B+
Agility
62 C+
69 B
TD react
65 C+
67 C+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Decision
37%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

33%

R2

16%

R3

14%

Dist

37%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Reese (ground 71) into Gandra (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 1.48 landed/absorbed

    Gandra

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs 1.45 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gandra

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 71

    Reese

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 4.48

    Gandra

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Reese

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Gandra

  • Striking defense

    47% vs 59%

    Reese

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 61%

    Reese

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Gandra

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Reese

  • Reach / length

    74.5" vs 77.0"

    Reese

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 74% hips on the shot

    Gandra

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gandra

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 49

    Reese

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gandra

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Reese (ground 71) into Gandra (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Reese

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 74%

    Gandra

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 56 vs 50

    Gandra

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Gandra

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gandra

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 32

    Gandra

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gandra

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Gandra

Tape

GandraMetricReese
11.71SLpM4.48
1.40SApM3.03
51%Str Acc61%
45%Str Def59%
0.00TD Avg2.80
0%TD Acc61%
85%TD Def74%
0.00Sub Avg1.27
0.76KD/150.19
6'3"Reach6'5"
31Age32

Ryan Gandra

W

Fighter 5143223

KO/TKO · R1 1:15

Jul 11, 2026
W

Fighter 5157817

KO/TKO · R1 0:41

Feb 28, 2026
W

Fighter 5216997

KO/TKO · R1 2:51

Aug 27, 2025
W

Fighter 5291089

KO/TKO · R1 2:28

Nov 22, 2024
W

Fighter 5000990

KO/TKO · R2 2:38

Nov 4, 2023
W

Fighter 5291088

Submission (Arm Triangle) · R1 2:30

Sep 30, 2023

Zach Reese

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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