OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Adrian Yañez 75% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Adrian Yañez / KO/TKO)

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yañez

Cody Garbrandt
USAUSA

Cody Garbrandt

“No Love”

#4 · 15-8 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C 57

Team Alpha Male · USA

VS
Adrian Yañez
USAUSA

Adrian Yañez

Unranked · 18-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 52

Metro Fight Club · USA

Cody Garbrandt

24.9%

Adrian Yañez

75.1%

Model win probability · confidence 71%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Yañez 75 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Adrian Yañez is the model side at 75.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Garbrandt 59 (C) vs Yañez 36 (D). Garbrandt's return is the live one (0.73 KD/15, 8 KOs) against Yañez's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Garbrandt

    Garbrandt 59 (C) vs Yañez 36 (D). Garbrandt's return is the live one (0.73 KD/15, 8 KOs) against Yañez's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Yañez

    Yañez 65 (C+) vs Garbrandt 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Yañez (6.0 SLpM at 42%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Yañez

    Yañez 71 (B) vs Garbrandt 63 (C+). Yañez absorbs 2.51/min at 56% defense; Garbrandt is a softer target at 3.62 SApM.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Yañez

    Yañez 85 (A) vs Garbrandt 77 (B+). Yañez has been finished by strikes 0 times; Garbrandt 0.

Path · Garbrandt

Garbrandt wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Yañez a long look at durability.

Path · Yañez

Volume. Yañez wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Garbrandt a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Garbrandt attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Yañez is built as: Volume pressure striker. Garbrandt is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Garbrandt — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Garbrandt 59 (C) vs Yañez 36 (D). Garbrandt's return is the live one (0.73 KD/15, 8 KOs) against Yañez's entries. Punching agility: Yañez 65 (C+) vs Garbrandt 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Yañez (6.0 SLpM at 42%). Striking defense: Yañez 71 (B) vs Garbrandt 63 (C+). Yañez absorbs 2.51/min at 56% defense; Garbrandt is a softer target at 3.62 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 13% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Garbrandt attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GarbrandtTraitYañez
57 C
IQ
52 C
21 D
Ground
14 D
63 C+
Defense
71 B
59 C
Counter
36 D
68 C+
Reaction
73 B
42 D
Agility
65 C+
64 C+
TD react
69 B
77 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
13%
Decision
48%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

27%

R2

13%

R3

12%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -0.83 vs 3.45 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Yañez

  • Damage ratio

    0.77 vs 2.37 landed/absorbed

    Yañez

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.79 vs 5.96

    Yañez

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 36

    Garbrandt

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yañez

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 56%

    Garbrandt

  • Reach / length

    65.5" vs 70.0"

    Yañez

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C 52 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Garbrandt

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 14

    Garbrandt

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Yañez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Yañez

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Yañez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Garbrandt

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Yañez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Yañez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Yañez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 32

    Yañez

  • Striking efficiency

    43% vs 42%

    Garbrandt

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 85%

    Yañez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Garbrandt

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Garbrandt

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Garbrandt

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Garbrandt

Tape

GarbrandtMetricYañez
2.79SLpM5.96
3.62SApM2.51
43%Str Acc42%
62%Str Def56%
0.85TD Avg0.00
23%TD Acc0%
82%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.73KD/150.78
5'6"Reach5'10"
35Age32

Cody Garbrandt

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Adrian Yañez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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