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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Charles Johnson 54% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Asu Almabayev / Submission)

Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson

Asu Almabayev
KazakhstanKazakhstan

Asu Almabayev

“Zulfikar”

Unranked · 24-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B 74

Dar Pro Team Kazakhstan · Kazakhstan

VS
Charles Johnson
USAUSA

Charles Johnson

“InnerG”

Unranked · 20-9 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 65

Murcielago MMA · USA

Asu Almabayev

45.9%

Charles Johnson

54.1%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Johnson 54 — the tape favors pocket striker

Charles Johnson is the model side at 54.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Almabayev 88 (A) vs Johnson 25 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Almabayev

    Almabayev 88 (A) vs Johnson 25 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Johnson

    Johnson 57 (C) vs Almabayev 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Almabayev

    Almabayev 74 (B) vs Johnson 65 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Almabayev (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Johnson

    Johnson 63 (C+) vs Almabayev 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Johnson.

Path · Almabayev

Almabayev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Johnson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Johnson

Johnson has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Johnson is built as: Pocket striker. Almabayev is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Fight IQ delta is -9 toward Almabayev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Almabayev 88 (A) vs Johnson 25 (D). Almabayev brings 4.7 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Johnson's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Johnson 57 (C) vs Almabayev 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Johnson (4.6 SLpM at 55%). Fight IQ: Almabayev 74 (B) vs Johnson 65 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Almabayev (B vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (30% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlmabayevTraitJohnson
74 B
IQ
65 C+
88 A
Ground
25 D
62 C+
Defense
67 C+
47 D
Counter
45 D
57 C
Reaction
63 C+
47 D
Agility
57 C
62 C+
TD react
65 C+
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
30%
Decision
45%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.52 vs 1.61 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Johnson

  • Ground game (tape)

    88 vs 25

    Almabayev

  • Damage ratio

    0.60 vs 1.54 landed/absorbed

    Johnson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Almabayev

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.28 vs 4.60

    Johnson

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Almabayev

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 70.0"

    Johnson

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 59%

    Almabayev

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 55%

    Almabayev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Johnson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Almabayev

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Almabayev (ground 88) into Johnson (TD reaction 65). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Almabayev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Johnson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Johnson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Johnson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 35

    Almabayev

  • Takedown reaction

    66% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Johnson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 66% vs 83%

    Johnson

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Johnson

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 45

    Almabayev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Almabayev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Almabayev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Almabayev

Tape

AlmabayevMetricJohnson
2.28SLpM4.60
3.80SApM2.99
61%Str Acc55%
63%Str Def59%
4.74TD Avg0.44
46%TD Acc15%
66%TD Def83%
1.44Sub Avg0.44
0.10KD/150.29
5'5"Reach5'10"
32Age35

Asu Almabayev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Charles Johnson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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