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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jean Matsumoto 83% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Jean Matsumoto / Decision - Unanimous)

Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto

Bekzat Almakhan
KazakhstanKazakhstan

Bekzat Almakhan

“The Turan Warrior”

Unranked · 12-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 53

Kazakhstan

VS
Jean Matsumoto
BrazilBrazil

Jean Matsumoto

Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 69

Inside Muay Thai · Brazil

Bekzat Almakhan

17.2%

Jean Matsumoto

82.8%

Model win probability · confidence 80%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Matsumoto 83 — the tape favors pocket striker

Jean Matsumoto is the model side at 82.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Matsumoto (ground 60) into Almakhan (TD reaction 61). Ground game is the clearest separator: Matsumoto 60 (C) vs Almakhan 14 (D). Matsumoto brings 3.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Almakhan's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Matsumoto

    Matsumoto 60 (C) vs Almakhan 14 (D). Matsumoto brings 3.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Almakhan's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Matsumoto

    Matsumoto 57 (C) vs Almakhan 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Matsumoto (5.4 SLpM at 45%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Matsumoto

    Matsumoto 69 (B) vs Almakhan 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Matsumoto (B vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Matsumoto

    Matsumoto 69 (B) vs Almakhan 62 (C+). Matsumoto absorbs 2.72/min at 57% defense; Almakhan is a softer target at 3.70 SApM.

Path · Almakhan

Almakhan has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Matsumoto

Matsumoto has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Almakhan defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Almakhan attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Matsumoto is built as: Pocket striker. Almakhan is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +16 toward Matsumoto — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Matsumoto 60 (C) vs Almakhan 14 (D). Matsumoto brings 3.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Almakhan's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Matsumoto 57 (C) vs Almakhan 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Matsumoto (5.4 SLpM at 45%). Fight IQ: Matsumoto 69 (B) vs Almakhan 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Matsumoto (B vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Almakhan attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlmakhanTraitMatsumoto
53 C
IQ
69 B
14 D
Ground
60 C
62 C+
Defense
69 B
33 D
Counter
30 D
66 C+
Reaction
60 C
37 D
Agility
57 C
61 C+
TD react
65 C+
85 A
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
32%
Decision
49%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Matsumoto (ground 60) into Almakhan (TD reaction 61).

  • Striking differential

    -1.12 vs 2.65 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Matsumoto

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 60

    Matsumoto

  • Damage ratio

    0.70 vs 1.97 landed/absorbed

    Matsumoto

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.58 vs 5.37

    Matsumoto

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Matsumoto

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Matsumoto

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Matsumoto

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 57%

    Almakhan

  • Striking efficiency

    39% vs 45%

    Matsumoto

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Matsumoto

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Matsumoto (ground 60) into Almakhan (TD reaction 61).

    Matsumoto

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Matsumoto

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Almakhan

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Matsumoto

  • Counter punching

    33 vs 30

    Almakhan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Matsumoto

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 73%

    Almakhan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Almakhan

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 68.5"

    Matsumoto

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 26

    Matsumoto

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Almakhan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Almakhan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Almakhan

Tape

AlmakhanMetricMatsumoto
2.58SLpM5.37
3.70SApM2.72
39%Str Acc45%
63%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg3.00
0%TD Acc49%
85%TD Def73%
0.00Sub Avg0.53
0.17KD/150.10
5'8"Reach5'9"
28Age26

Bekzat Almakhan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jean Matsumoto

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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