OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Middleweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dricus Du Plessis 70% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Dricus Du Plessis / Decision - Unanimous)

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis
South AfricaSouth Africa

Dricus Du Plessis

“Stilknocks”

Unranked · 24-3 · striker · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 66

Team CIT · South Africa

VS
Kamaru Usman
NigeriaNigeria

Kamaru Usman

“Nigerian Nightmare”

Champion · 21-5 · striker · Switch · 39 · IQ B 74

Kill Cliff FC · Nigeria

Dricus Du Plessis

70.0%

Kamaru Usman

30.0%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Du Plessis 70 — the tape favors pocket striker

Dricus Du Plessis is the model side at 70.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Usman 80 (B+) vs Du Plessis 56 (C). When the shot comes, Usman stuffs it at 94% — Du Plessis is at 76%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Usman

    Usman 80 (B+) vs Du Plessis 56 (C). When the shot comes, Usman stuffs it at 94% — Du Plessis is at 76%.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Plessis

    Du Plessis 68 (B) vs Usman 45 (D). Du Plessis absorbs 2.79/min at 58% defense; Usman is a softer target at 3.68 SApM.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Plessis

    Du Plessis 58 (C) vs Usman 44 (D). Du Plessis brings 2.2 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Usman's 94% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Usman

    Usman 84 (A) vs Du Plessis 70 (B). Usman has been finished by strikes 0 times; Du Plessis 0.

Path · Plessis

Du Plessis wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Usman a long look at durability.

Path · Usman

Usman has to stuff the first takedown (80 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Du Plessis is built as: Pocket striker. Usman is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Usman — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Usman 80 (B+) vs Du Plessis 56 (C). When the shot comes, Usman stuffs it at 94% — Du Plessis is at 76%. Striking defense: Du Plessis 68 (B) vs Usman 45 (D). Du Plessis absorbs 2.79/min at 58% defense; Usman is a softer target at 3.68 SApM. Ground game: Du Plessis 58 (C) vs Usman 44 (D). Du Plessis brings 2.2 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Usman's 94% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (44% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PlessisTraitUsman
66 C+
IQ
74 B
58 C
Ground
44 D
68 B
Defense
45 D
49 D
Counter
58 C
65 C+
Reaction
51 C
62 C+
Agility
59 C
56 C
TD react
80 B+
70 B
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
44%
Submission
28%
Decision
28%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

38%

R2

19%

R3

14%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

28%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    2.39 vs -0.31 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Plessis

  • Damage ratio

    1.86 vs 0.92 landed/absorbed

    Plessis

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 94% hips on the shot

    Usman

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 44%

    Plessis

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/7 UFC rows

    Plessis

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs D

    Plessis

  • Ground game (tape)

    58 vs 44

    Plessis

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.18 vs 3.44

    Plessis

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Usman

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Usman

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Plessis

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 58

    Usman

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 69

    Usman

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 39

    Plessis

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 90%

    Usman

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 49%

    Plessis

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Plessis

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Usman

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Plessis

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Usman

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Usman

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 76.0"

    Plessis

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Plessis

Tape

PlessisMetricUsman
5.18SLpM4.16
2.79SApM3.68
51%Str Acc64%
58%Str Def45%
2.22TD Avg2.79
51%TD Acc44%
76%TD Def94%
0.71Sub Avg0.09
0.41KD/150.53
6'4"Reach6'4"
32Age39

Dricus Du Plessis

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kamaru Usman

L

Fighter 3166126

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jul 19, 2026
W

Fighter 4024714

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jun 15, 2025
L

Fighter 4684751

Decision - Majority · R3 5:00

Oct 21, 2023
L

Leon Edwards

Decision - Majority · R5 5:00

Mar 18, 2023
L

Leon Edwards

KO/TKO · R5 4:04

Aug 21, 2022
W

Colby Covington

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Nov 7, 2021
W

Jorge Masvidal

KO/TKO · R2 1:02

Apr 25, 2021

Your pick

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