OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Allan Nascimento 68% · Submission · Distance · scored miss (Mitch Raposo / Decision - Split)

Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo

Allan Nascimento
BrazilBrazil

Allan Nascimento

“Puro Osso”

Unranked · 22-7 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 65

Chute Boxe - Diego Lima · Brazil

VS
Mitch Raposo
USAUSA

Mitch Raposo

Unranked · 11-3 · hybrid · Switch · 27 · IQ C+ 62

Regiment Traing Center · USA

Allan Nascimento

67.9%

Mitch Raposo

32.1%

Model win probability · confidence 63%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nascimento 68 — the tape favors pocket striker

Allan Nascimento is the model side at 67.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Nascimento 52 (C) vs Raposo 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nascimento (3.1 SLpM at 62%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 52 (C) vs Raposo 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nascimento (3.1 SLpM at 62%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 50 (C) vs Raposo 34 (D). Nascimento's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Raposo's entries.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Raposo

    Raposo 85 (A) vs Nascimento 71 (B). Raposo has been finished by strikes 0 times; Nascimento 0.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 67 (C+) vs Raposo 55 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 80% — Raposo is at 75%.

Path · Nascimento

Volume. Nascimento wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Raposo a clean reset.

Path · Raposo

Raposo wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nascimento a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Nascimento is built as: Pocket striker. Raposo is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Nascimento — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Nascimento 52 (C) vs Raposo 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nascimento (3.1 SLpM at 62%). Counter punching: Nascimento 50 (C) vs Raposo 34 (D). Nascimento's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Raposo's entries. Durability: Raposo 85 (A) vs Nascimento 71 (B). Raposo has been finished by strikes 0 times; Nascimento 0.

The finish path leans the mat (45% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NascimentoTraitRaposo
65 C+
IQ
62 C+
49 D
Ground
44 D
63 C+
Defense
61 C+
50 C
Counter
34 D
60 C
Reaction
61 C+
52 C
Agility
34 D
67 C+
TD react
55 C
71 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
45%
Decision
35%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

18%

R3

21%

Dist

35%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.47 vs -2.26 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nascimento

  • Striking efficiency

    62% vs 45%

    Nascimento

  • Damage ratio

    0.87 vs 0.43 landed/absorbed

    Nascimento

  • Counter punching

    50 vs 34

    Nascimento

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.06 vs 1.73

    Nascimento

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Nascimento

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nascimento

  • Reach / length

    69.5" vs 64.5"

    Nascimento

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Raposo

  • Ground game (tape)

    49 vs 44

    Nascimento

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 27

    Raposo

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nascimento

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 65%

    Raposo

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nascimento

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nascimento

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nascimento

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Nascimento

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Raposo

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 75%

    Nascimento

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Raposo

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nascimento

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nascimento

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nascimento

Tape

NascimentoMetricRaposo
3.06SLpM1.73
3.53SApM3.99
62%Str Acc45%
62%Str Def65%
1.26TD Avg2.54
23%TD Acc38%
80%TD Def75%
1.05Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'5"
34Age27

Allan Nascimento

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mitch Raposo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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