OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Flyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Manel Kape 61% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Manel Kape / KO/TKO)

Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Manel Kape
PortugalPortugal

Manel Kape

“Starboy”

Unranked · 23-7 · striker · Southpaw · 32 · IQ C+ 66

Xtreme Couture · Portugal

VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
JapanJapan

Kyoji Horiguchi

“Karate Kid”

Unranked · 36-6 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ B 71

American Top Team · Japan

Manel Kape

61.0%

Kyoji Horiguchi

39.0%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Kape 61 — the tape favors pocket striker

Manel Kape is the model side at 61.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kape 67 (C+) vs Horiguchi 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Kape (5.0 SLpM at 57%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Kape

    Kape 67 (C+) vs Horiguchi 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Kape (5.0 SLpM at 57%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Horiguchi

    Horiguchi 37 (D) vs Kape 27 (D). Horiguchi brings 1.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Kape's 83% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Kape

    Kape 70 (B) vs Horiguchi 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kape.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Horiguchi

    Horiguchi 71 (B) vs Kape 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Horiguchi (B vs C+).

Path · Kape

Volume. Kape wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Horiguchi a clean reset.

Path · Horiguchi

Horiguchi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Kape defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Kape is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Horiguchi is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Horiguchi — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kape 67 (C+) vs Horiguchi 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Kape (5.0 SLpM at 57%). Ground game: Horiguchi 37 (D) vs Kape 27 (D). Horiguchi brings 1.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Kape's 83% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Kape 70 (B) vs Horiguchi 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Kape.

The finish path leans strikes (38% KO/TKO vs 21% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KapeTraitHoriguchi
66 C+
IQ
71 B
27 D
Ground
37 D
68 C+
Defense
65 C+
49 D
Counter
48 D
70 B
Reaction
60 C
67 C+
Agility
51 C
60 C
TD react
62 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
38%
Submission
21%
Decision
41%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

16%

R3

12%

R4

2%

R5

3%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 14.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.20 vs 0.49 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kape

  • Damage ratio

    1.77 vs 1.15 landed/absorbed

    Kape

  • Ground game (tape)

    27 vs 37

    Horiguchi

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.04 vs 3.77

    Kape

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 63.0"

    Kape

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kape

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Horiguchi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Kape

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 60%

    Horiguchi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Horiguchi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Kape

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Horiguchi

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 35

    Kape

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Horiguchi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Kape

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 48

    Kape

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Kape

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 79%

    Kape

  • Striking efficiency

    57% vs 57%

    Kape

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Kape

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Kape

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Kape

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kape

Tape

KapeMetricHoriguchi
5.04SLpM3.77
2.84SApM3.28
57%Str Acc57%
58%Str Def60%
0.40TD Avg1.61
30%TD Acc41%
83%TD Def79%
0.27Sub Avg0.11
0.56KD/150.13
5'8"Reach5'3"
32Age35

Manel Kape

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kyoji Horiguchi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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