OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Vicente Luque 61% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored miss (Tresean Gore / Decision - Unanimous)

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore

Vicente Luque
BrazilBrazil

Vicente Luque

“The Silent Assassin”

#8 · 24-13-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 61

Kill Cliff FC · Brazil

VS
Tresean Gore
USAUSA

Tresean Gore

“Mr. Vicious”

Unranked · 8-4 · hybrid · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 62

MMA LAB · USA

Vicente Luque

60.5%

Tresean Gore

39.5%

Model win probability · confidence 55%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Luque 61 — the tape favors pocket striker

Vicente Luque is the model side at 60.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Gore (ground 63) into Luque (TD reaction 25). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Gore 66 (C+) vs Luque 25 (D). When the shot comes, Gore stuffs it at 77% — Luque is at 0%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Gore

    Gore 66 (C+) vs Luque 25 (D). When the shot comes, Gore stuffs it at 77% — Luque is at 0%.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Luque

    Luque 74 (B) vs Gore 50 (D). Hand speed / output lean Luque (4.8 SLpM at 54%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Luque

    Luque 65 (C+) vs Gore 46 (D). Luque's return is the live one (3.00 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Gore's entries.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Gore

    Gore 63 (C+) vs Luque 45 (D). Gore brings 1.9 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Luque's 0% takedown defense.

Path · Luque

Luque has to stuff the first takedown (25 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Gore

Gore has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Luque defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Luque is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Gore is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Gore — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Gore 66 (C+) vs Luque 25 (D). When the shot comes, Gore stuffs it at 77% — Luque is at 0%. Punching agility: Luque 74 (B) vs Gore 50 (D). Hand speed / output lean Luque (4.8 SLpM at 54%). Counter punching: Luque 65 (C+) vs Gore 46 (D). Luque's return is the live one (3.00 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Gore's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (51% KO/TKO vs 34% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LuqueTraitGore
61 C+
IQ
62 C+
45 D
Ground
63 C+
76 B+
Defense
64 C+
65 C+
Counter
46 D
59 C
Reaction
62 C+
74 B
Agility
50 D
25 D
TD react
66 C+
62 C+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
51%
Submission
34%
Decision
15%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

44%

R2

19%

R3

21%

Dist

15%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Gore (ground 63) into Luque (TD reaction 25). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.42 vs 0.00 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Luque

  • Damage ratio

    2.58 vs 1.00 landed/absorbed

    Luque

  • Takedown reaction

    0% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Gore

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 1/0 UFC rows

    Luque

  • Ground game (tape)

    45 vs 63

    Gore

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gore

  • Counter punching

    65 vs 46

    Luque

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Luque

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B+ vs C+

    Luque

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 35% vs 77%

    Gore

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gore

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Gore (ground 63) into Luque (TD reaction 25). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Gore

  • Striking efficiency

    49% vs 55%

    Gore

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 61%

    Gore

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.95 vs 3.41

    Luque

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 61 vs 50

    Luque

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Luque

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 32

    Gore

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gore

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gore

  • Reach / length

    75.5" vs 75.0"

    Luque

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Luque

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Luque

Tape

LuqueMetricGore
4.80SLpM3.41
1.80SApM3.41
54%Str Acc55%
55%Str Def61%
0.89TD Avg1.91
48%TD Acc73%
0%TD Def77%
0.70Sub Avg0.96
3.00KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'3"
34Age32

Vicente Luque

W

Kelvin Gastelum

Submission · R1 4:08

Apr 11, 2026

Tresean Gore

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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