OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Welterweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Conor McGregor 66% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Max Holloway / KO/TKO)

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Conor McGregor
IrelandIreland

Conor McGregor

“The Notorious”

Unranked · 22-7 · striker · Southpaw · 38 · IQ C 51

SBG Ireland · Ireland

VS
Max Holloway
USAUSA

Max Holloway

“Blessed”

#2 · 28-9 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 64

Gracie Technics · USA

Conor McGregor

65.8%

Max Holloway

34.2%

Model win probability · confidence 63%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McGregor 66 — the tape favors pocket striker

Conor McGregor is the model side at 65.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: McGregor 66 (C+) vs Holloway 38 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with McGregor.

  1. 01

    Timing & reaction

    McGregor

    McGregor 66 (C+) vs Holloway 38 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with McGregor.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    McGregor

    McGregor 69 (B) vs Holloway 51 (C). McGregor absorbs 2.76/min at 57% defense; Holloway is a softer target at 4.18 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Holloway

    Holloway 64 (C+) vs McGregor 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Holloway (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    McGregor

    McGregor 51 (C) vs Holloway 38 (D). McGregor's return is the live one (0.77 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Holloway's entries.

Path · McGregor

McGregor wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Holloway a long look at durability.

Path · Holloway

Holloway wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying McGregor a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. McGregor is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Holloway is built as: Power striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Holloway — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: McGregor 66 (C+) vs Holloway 38 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with McGregor. Striking defense: McGregor 69 (B) vs Holloway 51 (C). McGregor absorbs 2.76/min at 57% defense; Holloway is a softer target at 4.18 SApM. Fight IQ: Holloway 64 (C+) vs McGregor 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Holloway (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 11% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

McGregorTraitHolloway
51 C
IQ
64 C+
30 D
Ground
29 D
69 B
Defense
51 C
51 C
Counter
38 D
66 C+
Reaction
38 D
66 C+
Agility
57 C
54 C
TD react
47 D
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
11%
Decision
41%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

15%

R3

12%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.51 vs 1.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McGregor

  • Damage ratio

    1.91 vs 1.28 landed/absorbed

    McGregor

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Holloway

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    McGregor

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    McGregor

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 50%

    McGregor

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/2 UFC rows

    McGregor

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 88

    Holloway

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 38

    McGregor

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 69.0"

    McGregor

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 67% hips on the shot

    McGregor

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McGregor

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McGregor

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 34

    Holloway

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    McGregor

  • Striking efficiency

    56% vs 53%

    McGregor

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Holloway

  • Ground game (tape)

    30 vs 29

    McGregor

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.27 vs 5.41

    Holloway

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 66%

    McGregor

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    McGregor

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    McGregor

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    McGregor

Tape

McGregorMetricHolloway
5.27SLpM6.91
2.76SApM4.18
56%Str Acc50%
57%Str Def50%
0.66TD Avg0.23
56%TD Acc53%
82%TD Def67%
0.13Sub Avg0.28
0.77KD/150.00
6'2"Reach5'9"
38Age34

Conor McGregor

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Max Holloway

L

Charles Oliveira

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Mar 8, 2026
W

Yair Rodriguez

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Nov 13, 2021

Your pick

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