OctagonEdge

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Lightweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Justin Gaethje 55% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Justin Gaethje / KO/TKO)

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

Ilia Topuria
GeorgiaGeorgia

Ilia Topuria

“El Matador”

Unranked · 17-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 64

Climent Club · Georgia

VS
Justin Gaethje
USAUSA

Justin Gaethje

“The Highlight”

#3 · 28-5 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C+ 68

Elevation Fight Team · USA

Ilia Topuria

45.5%

Justin Gaethje

54.5%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gaethje 55 — the tape favors power striker

Justin Gaethje is the model side at 54.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Topuria (ground 58) into Gaethje (TD reaction 56). Ground game is the clearest separator: Topuria 58 (C) vs Gaethje 18 (D). Topuria brings 1.7 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Gaethje's 84% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Topuria

    Topuria 58 (C) vs Gaethje 18 (D). Topuria brings 1.7 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Gaethje's 84% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Gaethje

    Gaethje 79 (B+) vs Topuria 65 (C+). Gaethje has been finished by strikes 0 times; Topuria 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Topuria

    Topuria 69 (B) vs Gaethje 57 (C). Topuria's return is the live one (0.93 KD/15, 11 KOs) against Gaethje's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Topuria

    Topuria 66 (C+) vs Gaethje 56 (C). When the shot comes, Topuria stuffs it at 78% — Gaethje is at 84%.

Path · Topuria

Topuria has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Gaethje defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Gaethje

Gaethje has to stuff the first takedown (56 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Gaethje is built as: Power striker. Topuria is built as: Power striker. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Gaethje — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Topuria 58 (C) vs Gaethje 18 (D). Topuria brings 1.7 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Gaethje's 84% takedown defense. Durability: Gaethje 79 (B+) vs Topuria 65 (C+). Gaethje has been finished by strikes 0 times; Topuria 0. Counter punching: Topuria 69 (B) vs Gaethje 57 (C). Topuria's return is the live one (0.93 KD/15, 11 KOs) against Gaethje's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 20% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TopuriaTraitGaethje
64 C+
IQ
68 C+
58 C
Ground
18 D
67 C+
Defense
73 B
69 B
Counter
57 C
72 B
Reaction
64 C+
69 B
Agility
75 B
66 C+
TD react
56 C
65 C+
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Decision
44%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

13%

R3

11%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 14.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Topuria (ground 58) into Gaethje (TD reaction 56).

  • Striking differential

    1.91 vs 3.89 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gaethje

  • Ground game (tape)

    58 vs 18

    Topuria

  • Damage ratio

    1.66 vs 2.62 landed/absorbed

    Gaethje

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Topuria

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.82 vs 6.29

    Gaethje

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 84% hips on the shot

    Topuria

  • Counter punching

    69 vs 57

    Topuria

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gaethje

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 59%

    Gaethje

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gaethje

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 37

    Topuria

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Topuria (ground 58) into Gaethje (TD reaction 56).

    Topuria

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 55%

    Topuria

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Topuria

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Gaethje

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Gaethje

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Topuria

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 70.0"

    Gaethje

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gaethje

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 84%

    Gaethje

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Topuria

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Topuria

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Topuria

Tape

TopuriaMetricGaethje
4.82SLpM6.29
2.91SApM2.40
53%Str Acc59%
58%Str Def55%
1.73TD Avg0.30
57%TD Acc27%
78%TD Def84%
0.86Sub Avg0.00
0.93KD/150.59
5'9"Reach5'10"
29Age37

Ilia Topuria

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Justin Gaethje

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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