OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 15, 2026 · Jacob Malkoun 91% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Abubakar Vagaev
RussiaRussia

Abubakar Vagaev

Unranked · 25-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 64

Akhmat Fight Team · Russia

VS
Jacob Malkoun
AustraliaAustralia

Jacob Malkoun

“Mamba”

Unranked · 10-3 · wrestler · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 69

Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Smeaton Grange · Australia

Abubakar Vagaev

9.0%

Jacob Malkoun

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Malkoun 91 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Jacob Malkoun is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Malkoun (ground 74) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Malkoun 74 (B) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Malkoun brings 5.4 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Malkoun

    Malkoun 74 (B) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Malkoun brings 5.4 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Malkoun

    Malkoun 66 (C+) vs Vagaev 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Malkoun (4.2 SLpM at 66%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Malkoun

    Malkoun 54 (C) vs Vagaev 37 (D). Malkoun's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vagaev's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Malkoun

    Malkoun 66 (C+) vs Vagaev 57 (C). Malkoun absorbs 3.12/min at 60% defense; Vagaev is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Vagaev

Vagaev has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Malkoun

Malkoun has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Vagaev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vagaev attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Malkoun is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Vagaev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Malkoun — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Malkoun 74 (B) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Malkoun brings 5.4 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Malkoun 66 (C+) vs Vagaev 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Malkoun (4.2 SLpM at 66%). Counter punching: Malkoun 54 (C) vs Vagaev 37 (D). Malkoun's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vagaev's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (29% KO/TKO vs 29% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vagaev attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

VagaevTraitMalkoun
64 C+
IQ
69 B
13 D
Ground
74 B
57 C
Defense
66 C+
37 D
Counter
54 C
59 C
Reaction
57 C
38 D
Agility
66 C+
69 B
TD react
60 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Decision
43%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

43%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Malkoun (ground 74) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 1.11 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Malkoun

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 66%

    Malkoun

  • Ground game (tape)

    13 vs 74

    Malkoun

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 1.36 landed/absorbed

    Malkoun

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 4.23

    Malkoun

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Malkoun

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Malkoun

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 60%

    Vagaev

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 54

    Malkoun

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 63% hips on the shot

    Vagaev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Malkoun

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Malkoun

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Malkoun (ground 74) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69).

    Malkoun

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Malkoun

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 63%

    Vagaev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Vagaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Vagaev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 31

    Malkoun

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 73.0"

    Vagaev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Vagaev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Vagaev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Vagaev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Vagaev

Tape

VagaevMetricMalkoun
0.00SLpM4.23
4.60SApM3.12
0%Str Acc66%
68%Str Def60%
0.00TD Avg5.39
0%TD Acc43%
85%TD Def63%
0.00Sub Avg0.75
0.10KD/150.22
6'1"Reach6'1"
33Age31

Abubakar Vagaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jacob Malkoun

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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