OctagonEdge

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 15, 2026 · Junior Tafa 72% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Quentin Pasley vs Junior Tafa

Quentin Pasley
USAUSA

Quentin Pasley

Unranked · 3-0 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 68

Fighting Arts Academy · USA

VS
Junior Tafa
AustraliaAustralia

Junior Tafa

“The Juggernaut”

Unranked · 7-6 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ D 48

NTG Fight & Fitness · Australia

Quentin Pasley

28.1%

Junior Tafa

71.9%

Model win probability · confidence 75%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Tafa 72 — the tape favors power striker

Junior Tafa is the model side at 71.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Pasley 68 (C+) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pasley (C+ vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Pasley

    Pasley 68 (C+) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pasley (C+ vs D).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Tafa

    Tafa 55 (C) vs Pasley 37 (D). Tafa's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Pasley's entries.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Pasley

    Pasley 85 (A) vs Tafa 69 (B). Pasley has been finished by strikes 0 times; Tafa 0.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Pasley

    Pasley 69 (B) vs Tafa 55 (C). When the shot comes, Pasley stuffs it at 85% — Tafa is at 89%.

Path · Pasley

Pasley wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Tafa a long look at their first weapon.

Path · Tafa

Volume. Tafa wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Pasley a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Tafa is built as: Power striker — porous pocket. Pasley is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -20 toward Pasley — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Pasley 68 (C+) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Pasley (C+ vs D). Counter punching: Tafa 55 (C) vs Pasley 37 (D). Tafa's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Pasley's entries. Durability: Pasley 85 (A) vs Tafa 69 (B). Pasley has been finished by strikes 0 times; Tafa 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PasleyTraitTafa
68 C+
IQ
48 D
12 D
Ground
12 D
57 C
Defense
54 C
37 D
Counter
55 C
58 C
Reaction
60 C
38 D
Agility
49 D
69 B
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
69 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
6%
Decision
54%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

12%

R3

12%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -0.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tafa

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 55%

    Tafa

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.96 landed/absorbed

    Tafa

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 3.88

    Tafa

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs D 48 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pasley

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Pasley

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 57%

    Pasley

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 55

    Tafa

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 89% hips on the shot

    Pasley

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pasley

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Tafa

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 75.0"

    Pasley

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 60

    Tafa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Pasley

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 29

    Pasley

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tafa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Tafa

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Pasley

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tafa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 88%

    Pasley

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pasley

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pasley

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Pasley

Tape

PasleyMetricTafa
0.00SLpM3.53
4.60SApM3.93
0%Str Acc55%
68%Str Def58%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def89%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.00
—Reach6'3"
0Age29

Quentin Pasley

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Junior Tafa

L

Iwo Baraniewski

KO/TKO · R1 1:25

Jun 7, 2026
W

Fighter 5216849

KO/TKO · R1 2:42

May 2, 2026
L

Fighter 5078114

Submission · R2 3:18

Feb 1, 2026
L

Fighter 4410698

Submission · R2 4:25

Jul 13, 2025
W

Sean Sharaf

KO/TKO · R2 2:15

Oct 12, 2024
L

Fighter 5147389

Submission · R1 4:56

Aug 18, 2024

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