UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Oct 15, 2026 · Carli Judice 88% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Maycee Barber vs Carli Judice
USAMaycee Barber
“The Future”
Unranked · 15-3 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ C+ 65
Fort Collins Martial Arts · USA
USACarli Judice
“Crispy”
Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Southpaw · 27 · IQ C+ 68
Headkicks MMA · USA
Maycee Barber
12.0%
Carli Judice
88.0%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Judice 88 — the tape favors power striker
Carli Judice is the model side at 88.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Barber (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Barber 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Barber brings 1.6 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
BarberBarber 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Barber brings 1.6 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense.
- 02
Punching agility
JudiceJudice 80 (B+) vs Barber 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Judice (9.3 SLpM at 53%).
- 03
Counter punching
BarberBarber 56 (C) vs Judice 48 (D). Barber's return is the live one (0.78 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Judice's entries.
- 04
Durability
BarberBarber 85 (A) vs Judice 79 (B+). Barber has been finished by strikes 0 times; Judice 0.
Path · Barber
Barber has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Judice defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Judice
Judice has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Barber attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Judice is built as: Power striker — southpaw. Barber is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Judice — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Barber 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Barber brings 1.6 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Judice 80 (B+) vs Barber 69 (B). Hand speed / output lean Judice (9.3 SLpM at 53%). Counter punching: Barber 56 (C) vs Judice 48 (D). Barber's return is the live one (0.78 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Judice's entries.
The finish path leans strikes (35% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Barber attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
27%
R2
13%
R3
12%
Dist
48%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.2 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Barber (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Damage ratio
1.52 vs 6.69 landed/absorbed
JudiceStriking differential
1.56 vs 7.14 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
JudiceOutput (SLpM)
4.56 vs 8.40
JudiceGround game (tape)
37 vs 19
BarberStriking defense
59% vs 51%
BarberCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
JudiceRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows
JudiceStriking efficiency
57% vs 50%
BarberPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
JudiceGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
BarberReach / length
65.0" vs 68.0"
JudiceCounter punching
56 vs 48
BarberFight IQ
C+ 65 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
JudicePocket defense (tape)
C+ vs B
JudiceStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Barber (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
BarberDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
BarberStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 58
JudiceTakedown reaction
79% vs 83% hips on the shot
JudiceTakedown mismatch
TD def 79% vs 85%
JudiceAge-adjusted curve
28 vs 27
JudiceTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
BarberLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
BarberChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Barber
Tape
Maycee Barber
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Carli Judice
Fighter 4912582
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4239113
KO/TKO · R3 1:30
Fighter 5211223
KO/TKO · R1 1:40
Fighter 4871203
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5149147
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4289254
KO/TKO · R1 3:16
Your pick
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