OctagonEdge

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Heavyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Oct 10, 2026 · Alex Pereira 56% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira

Sergei Pavlovich
RussiaRussia

Sergei Pavlovich

Unranked · 21-3 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C+ 62

American Top Team · Russia

VS
Alex Pereira
BrazilBrazil

Alex Pereira

“Poatan”

Unranked · 13-4 · striker · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C 60

Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Brazil

Sergei Pavlovich

43.7%

Alex Pereira

56.3%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Pereira 56 — the tape favors pocket striker

Alex Pereira is the model side at 56.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Pereira 66 (C+) vs Pavlovich 52 (C). Pereira's return is the live one (1.32 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pavlovich's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Pereira

    Pereira 66 (C+) vs Pavlovich 52 (C). Pereira's return is the live one (1.32 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pavlovich's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Pereira

    Pereira 75 (B) vs Pavlovich 63 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Pereira (5.0 SLpM at 66%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Pavlovich

    Pavlovich 68 (B) vs Pereira 61 (C+). When the shot comes, Pavlovich stuffs it at 83% — Pereira is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Pereira

    Pereira 25 (D) vs Pavlovich 19 (D). Pereira brings 0.1 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Pavlovich's 83% takedown defense.

Path · Pavlovich

Pavlovich wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Pereira a long look at durability.

Path · Pereira

Pereira wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Pavlovich a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Pereira is built as: Pocket striker. Pavlovich is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Pavlovich — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Pereira 66 (C+) vs Pavlovich 52 (C). Pereira's return is the live one (1.32 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Pavlovich's entries. Punching agility: Pereira 75 (B) vs Pavlovich 63 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Pereira (5.0 SLpM at 66%). Takedown reaction: Pavlovich 68 (B) vs Pereira 61 (C+). When the shot comes, Pavlovich stuffs it at 83% — Pereira is at 85%.

The finish path leans strikes (68% KO/TKO vs 10% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PavlovichTraitPereira
62 C+
IQ
60 C
19 D
Ground
25 D
66 C+
Defense
68 C+
52 C
Counter
66 C+
69 B
Reaction
69 B
63 C+
Agility
75 B
68 B
TD react
61 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
68%
Submission
10%
Decision
22%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

40%

R2

20%

R3

16%

R4

1%

R5

1%

Dist

22%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.46 vs 2.16 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Pereira

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 66%

    Pereira

  • Damage ratio

    1.48 vs 1.76 landed/absorbed

    Pereira

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 66

    Pereira

  • Reach / length

    84.0" vs 79.0"

    Pavlovich

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 25

    Pereira

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Pereira

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Pavlovich

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.49 vs 5.01

    Pereira

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 39

    Pavlovich

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C 60 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pavlovich

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Pavlovich

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 58%

    Pavlovich

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Pereira

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Pereira

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Pavlovich

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Pavlovich

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pereira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 85%

    Pereira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Pavlovich

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pavlovich

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Pavlovich

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pavlovich

Tape

PavlovichMetricPereira
4.49SLpM5.01
3.03SApM2.85
52%Str Acc66%
59%Str Def58%
0.47TD Avg0.11
25%TD Acc50%
83%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.22
0.82KD/151.32
7'0"Reach6'7"
34Age39

Sergei Pavlovich

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alex Pereira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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