OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Alvin Hines 82% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Gabriel Lourenço vs Alvin Hines

GL
BrazilBrazil

Gabriel Lourenço

“Black Mamba”

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 66

Chute Boxe · Brazil

VS
Alvin Hines
USAUSA

Alvin Hines

“Goozie”

Unranked · 7-2 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 63

La Bodega Fight Team · USA

Gabriel Lourenço

18.4%

Alvin Hines

81.6%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hines 82 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Alvin Hines is the model side at 81.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Hines 52 (C) vs Lourenço 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hines (5.5 SLpM at 32%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Hines

    Hines 52 (C) vs Lourenço 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hines (5.5 SLpM at 32%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Hines

    Hines 27 (D) vs Lourenço 15 (D). Hines brings 1.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Lourenço's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Hines

    Hines 69 (B) vs Lourenço 57 (C). Hines absorbs 2.69/min at 57% defense; Lourenço is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Lourenço

    Lourenço 37 (D) vs Hines 26 (D). Lourenço's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hines's entries.

Path · Lourenço

Lourenço has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Hines

Hines has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Lourenço defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lourenço attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Hines is built as: Volume pressure striker. Lourenço is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Lourenço — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Hines 52 (C) vs Lourenço 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hines (5.5 SLpM at 32%). Ground game: Hines 27 (D) vs Lourenço 15 (D). Hines brings 1.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Lourenço's 85% takedown defense. Striking defense: Hines 69 (B) vs Lourenço 57 (C). Hines absorbs 2.69/min at 57% defense; Lourenço is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lourenço attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LourençoTraitHines
66 C+
IQ
63 C+
15 D
Ground
27 D
57 C
Defense
69 B
37 D
Counter
26 D
58 C
Reaction
60 C+
38 D
Agility
52 C
69 B
TD react
67 C+
83 B+
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Decision
48%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

17%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -3.76 vs 2.78 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hines

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 2.03 landed/absorbed

    Hines

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 5.47

    Hines

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Lourenço

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 57%

    Lourenço

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 27

    Hines

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 32%

    Hines

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Hines

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 26

    Lourenço

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hines

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lourenço

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 34

    Lourenço

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 74.0"

    Lourenço

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hines

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hines

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lourenço

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Lourenço

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Hines

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 81%

    Lourenço

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Lourenço

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Hines

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 50

    Hines

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lourenço

Tape

LourençoMetricHines
0.00SLpM5.47
4.60SApM2.69
0%Str Acc32%
68%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg1.00
0%TD Acc10%
85%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach6'2"
0Age34

Gabriel Lourenço

W

Fighter 5351908

KO/TKO · R1 -

Nov 15, 2025
W

Fighter 5400557

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:56

Oct 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5313285

TKO (Injury) · R1 1:45

Jun 28, 2025
W

Fighter 5400556

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 30, 2024
W

Fighter 5400555

KO/TKO · R1 0:40

Sep 29, 2024
W

Fighter 5344696

KO/TKO · R1 4:40

Nov 12, 2023

Alvin Hines

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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