OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Jose Delano 82% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov

Jose Delano
BrazilBrazil

Jose Delano

Unranked · 17-3 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 72

Brazilian Top Team · Brazil

VS
Murtazali Magomedov
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

Murtazali Magomedov

“The Highlight”

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 69

KHK MMA Team · Kyrgyzstan

Jose Delano

81.7%

Murtazali Magomedov

18.3%

Model win probability · confidence 78%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Delano 82 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Jose Delano is the model side at 81.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Delano 83 (B+) vs Magomedov 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Delano (8.4 SLpM at 66%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Delano

    Delano 83 (B+) vs Magomedov 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Delano (8.4 SLpM at 66%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Magomedov

    Magomedov 69 (B) vs Delano 59 (C). When the shot comes, Magomedov stuffs it at 85% — Delano is at 85%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Delano

    Delano 36 (D) vs Magomedov 28 (D). Delano's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Magomedov's entries.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Delano

    Delano 83 (A) vs Magomedov 77 (B+). Delano has been finished by strikes 0 times; Magomedov 0.

Path · Delano

Volume. Delano wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Magomedov a clean reset.

Path · Magomedov

Magomedov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Delano a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Magomedov attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Delano is built as: Volume pressure striker. Magomedov is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Delano — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Delano 83 (B+) vs Magomedov 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Delano (8.4 SLpM at 66%). Takedown reaction: Magomedov 69 (B) vs Delano 59 (C). When the shot comes, Magomedov stuffs it at 85% — Delano is at 85%. Counter punching: Delano 36 (D) vs Magomedov 28 (D). Delano's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Magomedov's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Magomedov attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DelanoTraitMagomedov
72 B
IQ
69 B
17 D
Ground
21 D
73 B
Defense
70 B
36 D
Counter
28 D
65 C+
Reaction
67 C+
83 B+
Agility
57 C
59 C
TD react
69 B
83 A
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Decision
56%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    5.11 vs 2.10 landed/absorbed

    Delano

  • Striking differential

    6.78 vs 2.92 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Delano

  • Striking efficiency

    66% vs 41%

    Delano

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.43 vs 5.57

    Delano

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Delano

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Magomedov

  • Striking defense

    51% vs 57%

    Magomedov

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 28

    Delano

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Delano

  • Ground game (tape)

    17 vs 21

    Magomedov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Magomedov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Delano

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Delano

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Delano

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 26

    Magomedov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Magomedov

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 70.5"

    Magomedov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Delano

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Delano

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Delano

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Delano

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Delano

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Delano

Tape

DelanoMetricMagomedov
8.43SLpM5.57
1.65SApM2.65
66%Str Acc41%
51%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.25
5'10"Reach5'11"
30Age26

Jose Delano

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Murtazali Magomedov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.