OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Elijah Smith 56% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith

Davey Grant
EnglandEngland

Davey Grant

“Dangerous”

Unranked · 18-8 · striker · Orthodox · 40 · IQ C 51

SBG Bishop Auckland · England

VS
Elijah Smith
USAUSA

Elijah Smith

“Swift”

Unranked · 10-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B 74

Team Victory · USA

Davey Grant

43.7%

Elijah Smith

56.3%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Smith 56 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Elijah Smith is the model side at 56.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 67) into Grant (TD reaction 54). Ground game is the clearest separator: Smith 67 (C+) vs Grant 37 (D). Smith brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Grant's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Smith

    Smith 67 (C+) vs Grant 37 (D). Smith brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Grant's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Smith

    Smith 74 (B) vs Grant 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Smith (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Smith

    Smith 65 (C+) vs Grant 54 (C). When the shot comes, Smith stuffs it at 73% — Grant is at 81%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Smith

    Smith 45 (D) vs Grant 35 (D). Smith's return is the live one (0.25 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Grant's entries.

Path · Grant

Grant has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Smith

Smith has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Grant defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Smith is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Grant is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +23 toward Smith — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Smith 67 (C+) vs Grant 37 (D). Smith brings 3.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Grant's 81% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Smith 74 (B) vs Grant 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Smith (B vs C). Takedown reaction: Smith 65 (C+) vs Grant 54 (C). When the shot comes, Smith stuffs it at 73% — Grant is at 81%.

The finish path leans the mat (36% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GrantTraitSmith
51 C
IQ
74 B
37 D
Ground
67 C+
70 B
Defense
66 C+
35 D
Counter
45 D
60 C
Reaction
60 C
56 C
Agility
55 C
54 C
TD react
65 C+
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
36%
Decision
39%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

17%

R3

18%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 67) into Grant (TD reaction 54).

  • Striking differential

    2.93 vs 1.04 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Grant

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Smith

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 67

    Smith

  • Damage ratio

    2.11 vs 1.33 landed/absorbed

    Grant

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Smith

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.58 vs 4.18

    Grant

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Smith

  • Age-adjusted curve

    40 vs 24

    Smith

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 45

    Smith

  • Striking efficiency

    47% vs 53%

    Smith

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Smith

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Smith (ground 67) into Grant (TD reaction 54).

    Smith

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 60%

    Smith

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Smith

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 71.0"

    Smith

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Grant

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 73%

    Grant

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Grant

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Grant

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Grant

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Grant

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Grant

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Grant

Tape

GrantMetricSmith
5.58SLpM4.18
2.65SApM3.14
47%Str Acc53%
57%Str Def60%
0.95TD Avg2.98
39%TD Acc53%
81%TD Def73%
0.16Sub Avg1.12
0.32KD/150.25
5'9"Reach5'11"
40Age24

Davey Grant

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Elijah Smith

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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