OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Jose Henrique 51% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique

Jonny Parsons
USAUSA

Jonny Parsons

“The Sluggernaut”

Unranked · 9-3 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C 55

Syndicate MMA · USA

VS
Jose Henrique
BrazilBrazil

Jose Henrique

“Canela”

Unranked · 9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 24 · IQ C+ 60

Nova Uniao · Brazil

Jonny Parsons

49.2%

Jose Henrique

50.8%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Henrique 51 — the tape favors pocket striker

Jose Henrique is the model side at 50.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Henrique 60 (C+) vs Parsons 55 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Henrique (C+ vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Henrique

    Henrique 60 (C+) vs Parsons 55 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Henrique (C+ vs C).

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Parsons

    Parsons 50 (C) vs Henrique 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Parsons (4.7 SLpM at 47%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Parsons

    Parsons 67 (C+) vs Henrique 66 (C+). Parsons absorbs 2.97/min at 59% defense; Henrique is a softer target at 3.12 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Parsons

    Parsons 37 (D) vs Henrique 36 (D). Parsons's return is the live one (0.23 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Henrique's entries.

Path · Parsons

Parsons wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Henrique a long look at durability.

Path · Henrique

Henrique wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Parsons a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Henrique is built as: Pocket striker. Parsons is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Henrique — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Henrique 60 (C+) vs Parsons 55 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Henrique (C+ vs C). Punching agility: Parsons 50 (C) vs Henrique 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Parsons (4.7 SLpM at 47%). Striking defense: Parsons 67 (C+) vs Henrique 66 (C+). Parsons absorbs 2.97/min at 59% defense; Henrique is a softer target at 3.12 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (64%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ParsonsTraitHenrique
55 C
IQ
60 C+
12 D
Ground
12 D
67 C+
Defense
66 C+
37 D
Counter
36 D
64 C+
Reaction
63 C+
50 C
Agility
48 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
9%
Decision
64%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

15%

R2

10%

R3

11%

Dist

64%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 79.0"

    Henrique

  • Striking differential

    1.68 vs 1.12 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Parsons

  • Damage ratio

    1.57 vs 1.36 landed/absorbed

    Parsons

  • Fight IQ

    C 55 vs C+ 60 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Henrique

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 24

    Henrique

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Henrique

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.65 vs 4.24

    Parsons

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Parsons

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 60%

    Henrique

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Parsons

  • Striking efficiency

    47% vs 46%

    Parsons

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 36

    Parsons

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Parsons

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Parsons

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Parsons

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Parsons

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Parsons

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Parsons

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Parsons

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Parsons

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Parsons

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Parsons

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Parsons

Tape

ParsonsMetricHenrique
4.65SLpM4.24
2.97SApM3.12
47%Str Acc46%
59%Str Def60%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.23KD/150.10
5'9"Reach6'7"
35Age24

Jonny Parsons

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jose Henrique

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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