OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Gabriella Fernandes 52% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes

Karine Silva
BrazilBrazil

Karine Silva

“Killer”

Unranked · 19-7 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 62

Fighting Nerds · Brazil

VS
Gabriella Fernandes
BrazilBrazil

Gabriella Fernandes

“Gabi”

Unranked · 11-4 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C+ 65

MMA Masters · Brazil

Karine Silva

47.8%

Gabriella Fernandes

52.2%

Model win probability · confidence 45%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Fernandes 52 — the tape favors pocket striker

Gabriella Fernandes is the model side at 52.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Silva (ground 67) into Fernandes (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Silva 67 (C+) vs Fernandes 24 (D). Silva brings 1.9 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Fernandes's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Silva

    Silva 67 (C+) vs Fernandes 24 (D). Silva brings 1.9 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Fernandes's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Fernandes

    Fernandes 68 (B) vs Silva 58 (C). When the shot comes, Fernandes stuffs it at 83% — Silva is at 77%.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Fernandes

    Fernandes 85 (A) vs Silva 79 (B+). Fernandes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Silva 0.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Fernandes

    Fernandes 47 (D) vs Silva 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Fernandes (3.5 SLpM at 51%).

Path · Silva

Silva has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Fernandes defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Fernandes

Fernandes has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Fernandes is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Silva is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Fernandes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Silva 67 (C+) vs Fernandes 24 (D). Silva brings 1.9 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Fernandes's 83% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Fernandes 68 (B) vs Silva 58 (C). When the shot comes, Fernandes stuffs it at 83% — Silva is at 77%. Durability: Fernandes 85 (A) vs Silva 79 (B+). Fernandes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Silva 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SilvaTraitFernandes
62 C+
IQ
65 C+
67 C+
Ground
24 D
62 C+
Defense
64 C+
42 D
Counter
43 D
62 C+
Reaction
64 C+
42 D
Agility
47 D
58 C
TD react
68 B
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
17%
Submission
29%
Decision
54%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Silva (ground 67) into Fernandes (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    67 vs 24

    Silva

  • Striking differential

    -1.58 vs 0.14 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Fernandes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Silva

  • Damage ratio

    0.59 vs 1.04 landed/absorbed

    Fernandes

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.24 vs 3.51

    Fernandes

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Fernandes

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Silva (ground 67) into Fernandes (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Silva

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 61%

    Silva

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 51%

    Silva

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Fernandes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Fernandes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Fernandes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Fernandes

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 66.0"

    Silva

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Fernandes

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 33

    Silva

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 43

    Fernandes

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Fernandes

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 83%

    Fernandes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Fernandes

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Silva

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Silva

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Silva

Tape

SilvaMetricFernandes
2.24SLpM3.51
3.82SApM3.37
55%Str Acc51%
64%Str Def61%
1.93TD Avg0.42
50%TD Acc18%
77%TD Def83%
1.61Sub Avg0.21
0.10KD/150.10
5'7"Reach5'6"
32Age33

Karine Silva

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Gabriella Fernandes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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