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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Austin Bashi 74% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan

Austin Bashi
USAUSA

Austin Bashi

Unranked · 14-2 · wrestler · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B 72

Warrior Way Martial Arts · USA

VS
Lucas Brennan
USAUSA

Lucas Brennan

“Skywalker”

Unranked · 11-3 · hybrid · Southpaw · 26 · IQ C 59

Next Generation · USA

Austin Bashi

74.0%

Lucas Brennan

26.0%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Bashi 74 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Austin Bashi is the model side at 74.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Brennan (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Bashi 90 (A) vs Brennan 34 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Brennan's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Bashi

    Bashi 90 (A) vs Brennan 34 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Brennan's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Brennan

    Brennan 69 (B) vs Bashi 50 (C). When the shot comes, Brennan stuffs it at 85% — Bashi is at 54%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Bashi

    Bashi 45 (D) vs Brennan 28 (D). Bashi's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Brennan's entries.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Brennan

    Brennan 65 (C+) vs Bashi 50 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Brennan.

Path · Bashi

Bashi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Brennan defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Brennan

Brennan has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Brennan attacking punching agility with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Bashi is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Brennan is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +14 toward Bashi — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Bashi 90 (A) vs Brennan 34 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Brennan's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Brennan 69 (B) vs Bashi 50 (C). When the shot comes, Brennan stuffs it at 85% — Bashi is at 54%. Counter punching: Bashi 45 (D) vs Brennan 28 (D). Bashi's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Brennan's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Brennan attacking punching agility with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BashiTraitBrennan
72 B
IQ
59 C
90 A
Ground
34 D
61 C+
Defense
61 C+
45 D
Counter
28 D
50 D
Reaction
65 C+
42 D
Agility
29 D
50 C
TD react
69 B
80 B+
Chin
71 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
37%
Decision
42%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

16%

R3

19%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Brennan (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    90 vs 34

    Bashi

  • Striking differential

    -2.24 vs -3.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bashi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bashi

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Bashi

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 42%

    Bashi

  • Takedown reaction

    54% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Brennan

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 28

    Bashi

  • Damage ratio

    0.44 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Bashi

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.75 vs 0.60

    Bashi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Brennan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bashi

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bashi

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Brennan (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Bashi

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 54% vs 85%

    Brennan

  • Striking defense

    65% vs 67%

    Brennan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bashi

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 71.0"

    Brennan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bashi

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 26

    Bashi

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Bashi

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bashi

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bashi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Bashi

Tape

BashiMetricBrennan
1.75SLpM0.60
3.99SApM4.39
59%Str Acc42%
65%Str Def67%
7.81TD Avg0.00
41%TD Acc0%
54%TD Def85%
1.67Sub Avg1.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'11"
24Age26

Austin Bashi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Lucas Brennan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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