UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Mantas Kondratavičius 71% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Mantas Kondratavičius vs Wes Schultz

Mantas Kondratavičius
LithuaniaLithuania

Mantas Kondratavičius

Unranked · 9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 64

Fighter House · Lithuania

VS
Wes Schultz
USAUSA

Wes Schultz

“Party Time”

Unranked · 9-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 65

Pura Vida BJJ · USA

Mantas Kondratavičius

70.7%

Wes Schultz

29.3%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Kondratavičius 71 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mantas Kondratavičius is the model side at 70.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Kondratavičius

    Kondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Kondratavičius

    Kondratavičius 85 (A) vs Schultz 67 (C+). Kondratavičius has been finished by strikes 0 times; Schultz 0.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Schultz

    Schultz 65 (C+) vs Kondratavičius 51 (C). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — Kondratavičius is at 74%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Kondratavičius

    Kondratavičius 55 (C) vs Schultz 44 (D). Kondratavičius's return is the live one (0.28 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Schultz's entries.

Path · Kondratavičius

Volume. Kondratavičius wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Schultz a clean reset.

Path · Schultz

Schultz wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Kondratavičius a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Kondratavičius is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Schultz is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Schultz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%). Durability: Kondratavičius 85 (A) vs Schultz 67 (C+). Kondratavičius has been finished by strikes 0 times; Schultz 0. Takedown reaction: Schultz 65 (C+) vs Kondratavičius 51 (C). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — Kondratavičius is at 74%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KondratavičiusTraitSchultz
64 C+
IQ
65 C+
64 C+
Ground
69 B
68 C+
Defense
60 C
55 C
Counter
44 D
62 C+
Reaction
61 C+
73 B
Agility
48 D
51 C
TD react
65 C+
85 A
Chin
67 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Decision
50%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    2.11 vs -1.09 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kondratavičius
  • Damage ratio

    1.74 vs 0.69 landed/absorbed

    Kondratavičius
  • Striking efficiency

    73% vs 50%

    Kondratavičius
  • Output (SLpM)

    4.97 vs 2.42

    Kondratavičius
  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Schultz
  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kondratavičius
  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Schultz
  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kondratavičius
  • Counter punching

    55 vs 44

    Kondratavičius
  • Striking defense

    58% vs 63%

    Schultz
  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Kondratavičius
  • Ground game (tape)

    64 vs 69

    Schultz
  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Schultz
  • Reach / length

    75.5" vs 77.0"

    Schultz
  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Schultz
  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows

    Kondratavičius
  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 54

    Schultz
  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 30

    Kondratavičius
  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 74% vs 76%

    Schultz
  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Kondratavičius
  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Kondratavičius
  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Kondratavičius
  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Kondratavičius

Tape

KondratavičiusMetricSchultz
4.97SLpM2.91
2.86SApM3.58
73%Str Acc55%
58%Str Def62%
2.80TD Avg2.39
60%TD Acc21%
74%TD Def75%
0.93Sub Avg3.59
0.28KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'5"
27Age30

Mantas Kondratavičius

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Wes Schultz

W

Fighter 5344659

Submission · R3 1:50

May 2, 2026
L

Fighter 5292022

KO/TKO · R1 2:30

Feb 28, 2026
W

Fighter 5296254

Submission · R1 1:51

Oct 15, 2025
W

Fighter 4001868

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:55

Apr 12, 2025
L

Fighter 5211221

KO/TKO · R2 3:55

Aug 13, 2024
W

Fighter 5152983

KO/TKO · R1 3:39

Apr 6, 2024

Your pick

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