UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Mantas Kondratavičius 71% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

LithuaniaMantas Kondratavičius
Unranked · 9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 64
Fighter House · Lithuania
Mantas Kondratavičius
70.7%
Wes Schultz
29.3%
Model win probability · confidence 73%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Mantas Kondratavičius is the model side at 70.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%).
Punching agility
KondratavičiusKondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%).
Durability
KondratavičiusKondratavičius 85 (A) vs Schultz 67 (C+). Kondratavičius has been finished by strikes 0 times; Schultz 0.
Takedown reaction
SchultzSchultz 65 (C+) vs Kondratavičius 51 (C). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — Kondratavičius is at 74%.
Counter punching
KondratavičiusKondratavičius 55 (C) vs Schultz 44 (D). Kondratavičius's return is the live one (0.28 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Schultz's entries.
Path · Kondratavičius
Volume. Kondratavičius wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Schultz a clean reset.
Path · Schultz
Schultz wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Kondratavičius a long look at durability.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Kondratavičius is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Schultz is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Schultz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kondratavičius 73 (B) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kondratavičius (5.0 SLpM at 73%). Durability: Kondratavičius 85 (A) vs Schultz 67 (C+). Kondratavičius has been finished by strikes 0 times; Schultz 0. Takedown reaction: Schultz 65 (C+) vs Kondratavičius 51 (C). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — Kondratavičius is at 74%.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.
R1
21%
R2
14%
R3
16%
Dist
50%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.
striker meets hybrid.
Striking differential
2.11 vs -1.09 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Damage ratio
1.74 vs 0.69 landed/absorbed
Striking efficiency
73% vs 50%
Output (SLpM)
4.97 vs 2.42
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Takedown reaction
74% vs 75% hips on the shot
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Counter punching
55 vs 44
Striking defense
58% vs 63%
Pocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C
Ground game (tape)
64 vs 69
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Reach / length
75.5" vs 77.0"
Fight IQ
C+ 64 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/6 UFC rows
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 54
Age-adjusted curve
27 vs 30
Takedown mismatch
TD def 74% vs 76%
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Style interaction
striker meets hybrid.
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Fighter 5344659
Submission · R3 1:50
Fighter 5292022
KO/TKO · R1 2:30
Fighter 5296254
Submission · R1 1:51
Fighter 4001868
Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:55
Fighter 5211221
KO/TKO · R2 3:55
Fighter 5152983
KO/TKO · R1 3:39
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