OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 3, 2026 · Tatiana Suarez 61% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba

Tatiana Suarez
USAUSA

Tatiana Suarez

“TSP”

Unranked · 13-1 · wrestler · Southpaw · 35 · IQ B+ 78

Millennia MMA · USA

VS
Virna Jandiroba
BrazilBrazil

Virna Jandiroba

“Carcara”

Unranked · 23-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 38 · IQ B 72

Academia Fight House · Brazil

Tatiana Suarez

60.7%

Virna Jandiroba

39.3%

Model win probability · confidence 54%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Suarez 61 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Tatiana Suarez is the model side at 60.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Suarez 54 (C) vs Jandiroba 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Suarez (2.9 SLpM at 72%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Suarez

    Suarez 54 (C) vs Jandiroba 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Suarez (2.9 SLpM at 72%).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Suarez

    Suarez 58 (C) vs Jandiroba 48 (D). Suarez's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jandiroba's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Suarez

    Suarez 78 (B+) vs Jandiroba 72 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Suarez (B+ vs B).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Suarez

    Suarez 77 (B+) vs Jandiroba 74 (B). Suarez brings 4.5 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Jandiroba's 72% takedown defense.

Path · Suarez

Suarez wins by forcing the fight into fight iq and denying Jandiroba a long look at durability.

Path · Jandiroba

Jandiroba wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Suarez a long look at fight iq.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Suarez is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — southpaw. Jandiroba is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Suarez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Suarez 54 (C) vs Jandiroba 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Suarez (2.9 SLpM at 72%). Counter punching: Suarez 58 (C) vs Jandiroba 48 (D). Suarez's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Jandiroba's entries. Fight IQ: Suarez 78 (B+) vs Jandiroba 72 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Suarez (B+ vs B).

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SuarezTraitJandiroba
78 B+
IQ
72 B
77 B+
Ground
74 B
63 C+
Defense
62 C+
58 C
Counter
48 D
55 C
Reaction
54 C
54 C
Agility
42 D
63 C+
TD react
64 C+
77 B+
Chin
75 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
33%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.74 vs -1.54 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Suarez

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 61%

    Suarez

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 78 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Suarez

  • Counter punching

    58 vs 48

    Suarez

  • Damage ratio

    0.79 vs 0.60 landed/absorbed

    Suarez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Suarez

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.86 vs 2.27

    Suarez

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 64.0"

    Suarez

  • Ground game (tape)

    77 vs 74

    Suarez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Suarez

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 63%

    Jandiroba

  • Takedown reaction

    67% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Jandiroba

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 38

    Suarez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Suarez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Suarez

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Suarez

  • Style interaction

    wrestler meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Suarez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 67% vs 72%

    Jandiroba

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Suarez

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Suarez

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Suarez

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Suarez

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Suarez

Tape

SuarezMetricJandiroba
2.86SLpM2.27
3.60SApM3.81
72%Str Acc61%
62%Str Def63%
4.52TD Avg3.13
46%TD Acc39%
67%TD Def72%
0.66Sub Avg1.39
0.20KD/150.10
5'6"Reach5'4"
35Age38

Tatiana Suarez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Virna Jandiroba

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.