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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Francis Marshall 59% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolaños

Francis Marshall
USAUSA

Francis Marshall

“Fire”

Unranked · 10-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ C+ 64

American Top Team · USA

VS
Gaston Bolaños
PeruPeru

Gaston Bolaños

“The Dreamkiller”

Unranked · 9-5 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ D 48

Combat Sports Academy · Peru

Francis Marshall

58.9%

Gaston Bolaños

41.1%

Model win probability · confidence 52%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Marshall 59 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Francis Marshall is the model side at 58.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Marshall (ground 59) into Bolaños (TD reaction 54). Ground game is the clearest separator: Marshall 59 (C) vs Bolaños 30 (D). Marshall brings 2.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Bolaños's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Marshall

    Marshall 59 (C) vs Bolaños 30 (D). Marshall brings 2.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Bolaños's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Marshall

    Marshall 64 (C+) vs Bolaños 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Marshall (C+ vs D).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Marshall

    Marshall 65 (C+) vs Bolaños 54 (C). When the shot comes, Marshall stuffs it at 74% — Bolaños is at 82%.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Bolaños

    Bolaños 85 (A) vs Marshall 78 (B+). Bolaños has been finished by strikes 0 times; Marshall 0.

Path · Marshall

Marshall has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Bolaños defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Bolaños

Bolaños has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Marshall is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Bolaños is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +16 toward Marshall — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Marshall 59 (C) vs Bolaños 30 (D). Marshall brings 2.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Bolaños's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Marshall 64 (C+) vs Bolaños 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Marshall (C+ vs D). Takedown reaction: Marshall 65 (C+) vs Bolaños 54 (C). When the shot comes, Marshall stuffs it at 74% — Bolaños is at 82%.

The finish path leans the mat (45% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MarshallTraitBolaños
64 C+
IQ
48 D
59 C
Ground
30 D
63 C+
Defense
64 C+
38 D
Counter
44 D
62 C+
Reaction
64 C+
43 D
Agility
48 D
65 C+
TD react
54 C
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
45%
Decision
29%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

20%

R3

23%

Dist

29%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Marshall (ground 59) into Bolaños (TD reaction 54).

  • Ground game (tape)

    59 vs 30

    Marshall

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs D 48 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Marshall

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Marshall

  • Striking efficiency

    43% vs 54%

    Bolaños

  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Marshall

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 69.0"

    Marshall

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Marshall (ground 59) into Bolaños (TD reaction 54).

    Marshall

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 44

    Bolaños

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Bolaños

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 33

    Marshall

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Marshall

  • Striking differential

    -0.29 vs -0.17 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bolaños

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bolaños

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bolaños

  • Damage ratio

    0.92 vs 0.95 landed/absorbed

    Bolaños

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 74% vs 82%

    Bolaños

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.19 vs 3.28

    Bolaños

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 61%

    Marshall

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Bolaños

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bolaños

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Marshall

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Marshall

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Marshall

Tape

MarshallMetricBolaños
3.19SLpM3.28
3.48SApM3.45
43%Str Acc54%
62%Str Def61%
2.71TD Avg0.66
47%TD Acc100%
74%TD Def82%
0.51Sub Avg0.00
0.22KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'9"
27Age33

Francis Marshall

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Gaston Bolaños

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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