OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Julian Erosa 71% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee

Julian Erosa
USAUSA

Julian Erosa

“Juicy J”

Unranked · 31-14 · striker · Southpaw · 37 · IQ C+ 63

Xtreme Couture · USA

VS
JeongYeong Lee
South KoreaSouth Korea

JeongYeong Lee

“Korean Tiger”

Unranked · 11-3 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 70

Fight Ready · South Korea

Julian Erosa

71.0%

JeongYeong Lee

29.0%

Model win probability · confidence 66%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Erosa 71 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Julian Erosa is the model side at 71.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Lee 51 (C) vs Erosa 34 (D). Lee's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Erosa's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Lee

    Lee 51 (C) vs Erosa 34 (D). Lee's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Erosa's entries.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Erosa

    Erosa 52 (C) vs Lee 39 (D). Erosa brings 1.7 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Lee's 82% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Erosa

    Erosa 72 (B) vs Lee 64 (C+). Erosa absorbs 2.44/min at 56% defense; Lee is a softer target at 3.42 SApM.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Lee

    Lee 65 (C+) vs Erosa 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Lee.

Path · Erosa

Erosa has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Lee defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Lee

Lee has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Erosa is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Lee is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Lee — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Lee 51 (C) vs Erosa 34 (D). Lee's return is the live one (0.20 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Erosa's entries. Ground game: Erosa 52 (C) vs Lee 39 (D). Erosa brings 1.7 TD/15 and 14 sub wins into Lee's 82% takedown defense. Striking defense: Erosa 72 (B) vs Lee 64 (C+). Erosa absorbs 2.44/min at 56% defense; Lee is a softer target at 3.42 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (32% KO/TKO vs 27% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ErosaTraitLee
63 C+
IQ
70 B
52 C
Ground
39 D
72 B
Defense
64 C+
34 D
Counter
51 C
57 C
Reaction
65 C+
64 C+
Agility
56 C
66 C+
TD react
68 C+
79 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Decision
41%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.74 vs -0.04 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Erosa

  • Damage ratio

    2.53 vs 0.99 landed/absorbed

    Erosa

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.18 vs 3.38

    Erosa

  • Ground game (tape)

    52 vs 39

    Erosa

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 51

    Lee

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lee

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 61%

    Lee

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 59%

    Lee

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Erosa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Erosa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 30

    Lee

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Lee

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Erosa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lee

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Lee

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Erosa

  • Reach / length

    74.5" vs 73.5"

    Erosa

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Lee

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Erosa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 82%

    Lee

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Erosa

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Erosa

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Erosa

Tape

ErosaMetricLee
6.18SLpM3.38
2.44SApM3.42
52%Str Acc59%
56%Str Def61%
1.73TD Avg0.63
44%TD Acc67%
78%TD Def82%
0.71Sub Avg0.32
0.19KD/150.20
6'3"Reach6'2"
37Age30

Julian Erosa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

JeongYeong Lee

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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