OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Azamat Bekoev 64% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski

Azamat Bekoev
RussiaRussia

Azamat Bekoev

“Iron”

Unranked · 20-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 68

American Top Team · Russia

VS
Andre Petroski
USAUSA

Andre Petroski

Unranked · 13-7 · hybrid · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 64

Renzo Gracie Philly · USA

Azamat Bekoev

64.2%

Andre Petroski

35.8%

Model win probability · confidence 58%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Bekoev 64 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Azamat Bekoev is the model side at 64.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Petroski (ground 71) into Bekoev (TD reaction 52). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Bekoev 68 (C+) vs Petroski 44 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bekoev (4.6 SLpM at 64%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Bekoev

    Bekoev 68 (C+) vs Petroski 44 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bekoev (4.6 SLpM at 64%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Petroski

    Petroski 71 (B) vs Bekoev 56 (C). Petroski brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Bekoev's 71% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Petroski

    Petroski 60 (C+) vs Bekoev 52 (C). When the shot comes, Petroski stuffs it at 72% — Bekoev is at 71%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Bekoev

    Bekoev 52 (C) vs Petroski 46 (D). Bekoev's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Petroski's entries.

Path · Bekoev

Bekoev has to stuff the first takedown (52 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Petroski

Petroski has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Bekoev defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Bekoev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Petroski is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Bekoev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Bekoev 68 (C+) vs Petroski 44 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bekoev (4.6 SLpM at 64%). Ground game: Petroski 71 (B) vs Bekoev 56 (C). Petroski brings 3.1 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Bekoev's 71% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Petroski 60 (C+) vs Bekoev 52 (C). When the shot comes, Petroski stuffs it at 72% — Bekoev is at 71%.

The finish path leans strikes (31% KO/TKO vs 31% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BekoevTraitPetroski
68 B
IQ
64 C+
56 C
Ground
71 B
67 C+
Defense
63 C+
52 C
Counter
46 D
60 C+
Reaction
57 C
68 C+
Agility
44 D
52 C
TD react
60 C+
81 B+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Petroski (ground 71) into Bekoev (TD reaction 52). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.57 vs -0.89 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Bekoev

  • Damage ratio

    1.52 vs 0.76 landed/absorbed

    Bekoev

  • Ground game (tape)

    56 vs 71

    Petroski

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.57 vs 2.75

    Bekoev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Bekoev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Petroski

  • Striking efficiency

    64% vs 56%

    Bekoev

  • Takedown reaction

    71% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Petroski

  • Fight IQ

    B 68 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Bekoev

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 63%

    Petroski

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Petroski (ground 71) into Bekoev (TD reaction 52). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Petroski

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 46

    Bekoev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bekoev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Bekoev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 35

    Bekoev

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 73.0"

    Petroski

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Bekoev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Petroski

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Bekoev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 71% vs 72%

    Petroski

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Bekoev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bekoev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bekoev

Tape

BekoevMetricPetroski
4.57SLpM2.75
3.00SApM3.64
64%Str Acc56%
59%Str Def63%
3.48TD Avg3.13
44%TD Acc53%
71%TD Def72%
0.00Sub Avg1.23
0.22KD/150.15
6'0"Reach6'1"
30Age35

Azamat Bekoev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Andre Petroski

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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