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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Rodrigo Sezinando 75% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren

Rodrigo Sezinando
BrazilBrazil

Rodrigo Sezinando

Unranked · 9-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 64

Nova Uniao · Brazil

VS
Theodor Berggren
SwedenSweden

Theodor Berggren

“Simba”

Unranked · 8-4 · hybrid · -- · 26 · IQ C 58

Renyi · Sweden

Rodrigo Sezinando

75.2%

Theodor Berggren

24.8%

Model win probability · confidence 71%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sezinando 75 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Rodrigo Sezinando is the model side at 75.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sezinando (ground 49) into Berggren (TD reaction 61). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Sezinando 49 (D) vs Berggren 19 (D). Sezinando brings 3.4 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Berggren's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Sezinando

    Sezinando 49 (D) vs Berggren 19 (D). Sezinando brings 3.4 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Berggren's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Berggren

    Berggren 37 (D) vs Sezinando 31 (D). Berggren's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Sezinando's entries.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Sezinando

    Sezinando 64 (C+) vs Berggren 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sezinando (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Sezinando

    Sezinando 62 (C+) vs Berggren 57 (C). Sezinando absorbs 3.81/min at 64% defense; Berggren is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Sezinando

Sezinando has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Berggren defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Berggren

Berggren has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Berggren attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sezinando is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Berggren is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Sezinando — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Sezinando 49 (D) vs Berggren 19 (D). Sezinando brings 3.4 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Berggren's 85% takedown defense. Counter punching: Berggren 37 (D) vs Sezinando 31 (D). Berggren's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Sezinando's entries. Fight IQ: Sezinando 64 (C+) vs Berggren 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sezinando (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Berggren attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SezinandoTraitBerggren
64 C+
IQ
58 C
49 D
Ground
19 D
62 C+
Defense
57 C
31 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
34 D
Agility
39 D
64 C+
TD react
61 C+
83 B+
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
29%
Decision
50%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Sezinando (ground 49) into Berggren (TD reaction 61). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.56 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Sezinando

  • Ground game (tape)

    49 vs 19

    Sezinando

  • Striking efficiency

    28% vs 0%

    Sezinando

  • Damage ratio

    0.59 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Sezinando

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.25 vs 0.00

    Sezinando

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sezinando

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sezinando

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 75.0"

    Berggren

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 68%

    Berggren

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Sezinando (ground 49) into Berggren (TD reaction 61). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Sezinando

  • Counter punching

    31 vs 37

    Berggren

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Sezinando

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Sezinando

  • Takedown reaction

    72% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Sezinando

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Berggren

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 72% vs 85%

    Berggren

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sezinando

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sezinando

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 26

    Berggren

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Berggren

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Sezinando

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sezinando

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sezinando

Tape

SezinandoMetricBerggren
2.25SLpM0.00
3.81SApM4.60
28%Str Acc0%
64%Str Def68%
3.37TD Avg0.00
25%TD Acc0%
72%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach6'3"
28Age26

Rodrigo Sezinando

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Theodor Berggren

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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