OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Piera Rodriguez 59% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez

Talita Alencar
BrazilBrazil

Talita Alencar

“Problem Child”

Unranked · 8-1-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 66

Fight Sports Deerfield Beach · Brazil

VS
Piera Rodriguez
VenezuelaVenezuela

Piera Rodriguez

“La Fiera”

Unranked · 12-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 60

Xtreme Couture · Venezuela

Talita Alencar

40.5%

Piera Rodriguez

59.5%

Model win probability · confidence 53%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rodriguez 59 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Piera Rodriguez is the model side at 59.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Alencar 65 (C+) vs Rodriguez 50 (D). When the shot comes, Alencar stuffs it at 73% — Rodriguez is at 69%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Alencar

    Alencar 65 (C+) vs Rodriguez 50 (D). When the shot comes, Alencar stuffs it at 73% — Rodriguez is at 69%.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 51 (C) vs Alencar 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rodriguez (4.0 SLpM at 51%).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 85 (A) vs Alencar 78 (B+). Rodriguez has been finished by strikes 0 times; Alencar 0.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Rodriguez

    Rodriguez 42 (D) vs Alencar 36 (D). Rodriguez's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Alencar's entries.

Path · Alencar

Alencar wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Rodriguez a long look at durability.

Path · Rodriguez

Rodriguez wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Alencar a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Rodriguez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Alencar is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Alencar — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Alencar 65 (C+) vs Rodriguez 50 (D). When the shot comes, Alencar stuffs it at 73% — Rodriguez is at 69%. Punching agility: Rodriguez 51 (C) vs Alencar 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rodriguez (4.0 SLpM at 51%). Durability: Rodriguez 85 (A) vs Alencar 78 (B+). Rodriguez has been finished by strikes 0 times; Alencar 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (72%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlencarTraitRodriguez
66 C+
IQ
60 C+
57 C
Ground
56 C
63 C+
Defense
65 C+
36 D
Counter
42 D
57 C
Reaction
58 C
37 D
Agility
51 C
65 C+
TD react
50 D
78 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Decision
72%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

11%

R2

8%

R3

9%

Dist

72%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.8 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -0.43 vs 0.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rodriguez

  • Damage ratio

    0.88 vs 1.27 landed/absorbed

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Alencar

  • Reach / length

    58.5" vs 63.5"

    Rodriguez

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 60 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Alencar

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.09 vs 4.04

    Rodriguez

  • Striking efficiency

    44% vs 51%

    Rodriguez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rodriguez

  • Counter punching

    36 vs 42

    Rodriguez

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Rodriguez

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rodriguez

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 60%

    Alencar

  • Ground game (tape)

    57 vs 56

    Alencar

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Rodriguez

  • Age-adjusted curve

    35 vs 33

    Rodriguez

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Alencar

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rodriguez

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rodriguez

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 69%

    Alencar

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Alencar

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Alencar

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Alencar

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Alencar

Tape

AlencarMetricRodriguez
3.09SLpM4.04
3.52SApM3.19
44%Str Acc51%
62%Str Def60%
3.01TD Avg4.04
30%TD Acc51%
73%TD Def69%
0.50Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
4'11"Reach5'4"
35Age33

Talita Alencar

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Piera Rodriguez

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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