OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Yana Santos 53% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos

Yana Santos
RussiaRussia

Yana Santos

#7 · 17-8 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C+ 60

American Top Team · Russia

VS
Luana Santos
BrazilBrazil

Luana Santos

Unranked · 11-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B+ 77

Syndicate MMA · Brazil

Yana Santos

53.4%

Luana Santos

46.6%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Santos 53 — the tape favors pocket striker

Yana Santos is the model side at 53.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Santos (TD reaction 60). Ground game is the clearest separator: Santos 58 (C) vs Santos 29 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Santos's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Santos

    Santos 58 (C) vs Santos 29 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Santos's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Santos

    Santos 77 (B+) vs Santos 60 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Santos (B+ vs C+).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Santos

    Santos 63 (C+) vs Santos 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Santos (4.4 SLpM at 70%).

  4. 04

    Durability

    Santos

    Santos 85 (A) vs Santos 79 (B+). Santos has been finished by strikes 0 times; Santos 0.

Path · Santos

Santos has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Santos

Santos has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Santos defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Santos is built as: Pocket striker. Santos is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -16 toward Santos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Santos 58 (C) vs Santos 29 (D). Santos brings 2.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Santos's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Santos 77 (B+) vs Santos 60 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Santos (B+ vs C+). Punching agility: Santos 63 (C+) vs Santos 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Santos (4.4 SLpM at 70%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SantosTraitSantos
60 C+
IQ
77 B+
29 D
Ground
58 C
66 C+
Defense
62 C+
55 C
Counter
57 C
58 C
Reaction
63 C+
63 C+
Agility
57 C
60 C+
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
19%
Decision
61%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

12%

Dist

61%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Santos (TD reaction 60).

  • Striking differential

    1.35 vs -1.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Santos

  • Ground game (tape)

    29 vs 58

    Santos

  • Damage ratio

    1.44 vs 0.68 landed/absorbed

    Santos

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 60 vs B+ 77 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Santos

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.41 vs 2.53

    Santos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Santos

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 26

    Santos

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 63%

    Santos

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 76% hips on the shot

    Santos

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Santos (ground 58) into Santos (TD reaction 60).

    Santos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Santos

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Santos

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Santos

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Santos

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Santos

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 67.0"

    Santos

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 57

    Santos

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Santos

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 76%

    Santos

  • Striking efficiency

    70% vs 70%

    Santos

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Santos

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Santos

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Santos

Tape

SantosMetricSantos
4.41SLpM2.53
3.06SApM3.71
70%Str Acc70%
59%Str Def63%
0.78TD Avg2.14
47%TD Acc38%
82%TD Def76%
0.10Sub Avg0.97
0.10KD/150.22
5'8"Reach5'7"
36Age26

Yana Santos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Luana Santos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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