OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Carlos Leal 84% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal

Randy Brown
JamaicaJamaica

Randy Brown

“Rudeboy”

Unranked · 20-8 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C+ 61

Budokan Martial Arts Academy · Jamaica

VS
Carlos Leal
BrazilBrazil

Carlos Leal

“The Lion”

Unranked · 23-7 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 56

Thai Brasil · Brazil

Randy Brown

15.7%

Carlos Leal

84.3%

Model win probability · confidence 81%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Leal 84 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Carlos Leal is the model side at 84.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Brown (ground 35) into Leal (TD reaction 64). Counter punching is the clearest separator: Brown 45 (D) vs Leal 23 (D). Brown's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Leal's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Brown

    Brown 45 (D) vs Leal 23 (D). Brown's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Leal's entries.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Brown

    Brown 35 (D) vs Leal 17 (D). Brown brings 0.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Leal's 83% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Leal

    Leal 69 (B) vs Brown 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Leal (8.8 SLpM at 50%).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Leal

    Leal 73 (B) vs Brown 66 (C+). Leal absorbs 1.54/min at 51% defense; Brown is a softer target at 3.06 SApM.

Path · Brown

Brown has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Leal defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Leal

Leal has to stuff the first takedown (64 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Brown attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Leal is built as: Volume pressure striker. Brown is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Brown — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Brown 45 (D) vs Leal 23 (D). Brown's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Leal's entries. Ground game: Brown 35 (D) vs Leal 17 (D). Brown brings 0.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Leal's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Leal 69 (B) vs Brown 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Leal (8.8 SLpM at 50%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Brown attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BrownTraitLeal
61 C+
IQ
56 C
35 D
Ground
17 D
66 C+
Defense
73 B
45 D
Counter
23 D
61 C+
Reaction
64 C+
54 C
Agility
69 B
60 C+
TD react
64 C+
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
21%
Decision
55%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Brown (ground 35) into Leal (TD reaction 64).

  • Damage ratio

    1.43 vs 5.68 landed/absorbed

    Leal

  • Striking differential

    1.33 vs 7.21 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Leal

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.39 vs 8.75

    Leal

  • Ground game (tape)

    35 vs 17

    Brown

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 23

    Brown

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 51%

    Brown

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Leal

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C 56 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Brown

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 74.0"

    Brown

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Brown

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Leal

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Brown (ground 35) into Leal (TD reaction 64).

    Brown

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Leal

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 32

    Leal

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Leal

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Leal

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Leal

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Brown

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 50%

    Brown

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 83%

    Leal

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Brown

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Brown

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Brown

Tape

BrownMetricLeal
4.39SLpM8.75
3.06SApM1.54
51%Str Acc50%
59%Str Def51%
0.71TD Avg0.43
34%TD Acc11%
82%TD Def83%
0.52Sub Avg0.00
0.40KD/150.10
6'6"Reach6'2"
36Age32

Randy Brown

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Carlos Leal

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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