OctagonEdge

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Colby Thicknesse 88% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

Colby Thicknesse
AustraliaAustralia

Colby Thicknesse

“Slickness”

Unranked · 9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 71

Freestyle Fighting Gym · Australia

VS
Asaf Chopurov
RussiaRussia

Asaf Chopurov

“Honey Badger”

Unranked · 0-0 · hybrid · -- · 24 · IQ D 43

Russia

Colby Thicknesse

87.8%

Asaf Chopurov

12.2%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Thicknesse 88 — the tape favors pocket striker

Colby Thicknesse is the model side at 87.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Thicknesse (ground 31) into Chopurov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Thicknesse 71 (B) vs Chopurov 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Thicknesse (B vs D).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Thicknesse

    Thicknesse 71 (B) vs Chopurov 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Thicknesse (B vs D).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Thicknesse

    Thicknesse 85 (A) vs Chopurov 65 (C+). Thicknesse has been finished by strikes 0 times; Chopurov 0.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Thicknesse

    Thicknesse 31 (D) vs Chopurov 12 (D). Thicknesse brings 1.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Chopurov's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Thicknesse

    Thicknesse 48 (D) vs Chopurov 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Thicknesse (3.3 SLpM at 50%).

Path · Thicknesse

Thicknesse has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Chopurov defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Chopurov

Chopurov has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chopurov attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Thicknesse is built as: Pocket striker. Chopurov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +28 toward Thicknesse — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Thicknesse 71 (B) vs Chopurov 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Thicknesse (B vs D). Durability: Thicknesse 85 (A) vs Chopurov 65 (C+). Thicknesse has been finished by strikes 0 times; Chopurov 0. Ground game: Thicknesse 31 (D) vs Chopurov 12 (D). Thicknesse brings 1.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Chopurov's 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chopurov attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ThicknesseTraitChopurov
71 B
IQ
43 D
31 D
Ground
12 D
64 C+
Defense
57 C
42 D
Counter
37 D
63 C+
Reaction
58 C
48 D
Agility
38 D
67 C+
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
65 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
18%
Submission
26%
Decision
56%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Thicknesse (ground 31) into Chopurov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.10 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Thicknesse

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 0%

    Thicknesse

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs D 43 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Thicknesse

  • Damage ratio

    0.97 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Thicknesse

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.33 vs 0.00

    Thicknesse

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Thicknesse

  • Ground game (tape)

    31 vs 12

    Thicknesse

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Thicknesse

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 68%

    Chopurov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Thicknesse

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Thicknesse

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Thicknesse

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Thicknesse (ground 31) into Chopurov (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Thicknesse

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 37

    Thicknesse

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Thicknesse

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Thicknesse

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 68.0"

    Thicknesse

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Chopurov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 85%

    Chopurov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 24

    Chopurov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Thicknesse

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Thicknesse

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Thicknesse

Tape

ThicknesseMetricChopurov
3.33SLpM0.00
3.43SApM4.60
50%Str Acc0%
61%Str Def68%
1.00TD Avg0.00
9%TD Acc0%
81%TD Def85%
0.50Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'9"Reach—
27Age24

Colby Thicknesse

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Asaf Chopurov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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