OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Santiago Luna 91% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result

Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna

Aleksandre Topuria
GeorgiaGeorgia

Aleksandre Topuria

“El Conquistador”

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 74

Climent Club · Georgia

VS
Santiago Luna
MexicoMexico

Santiago Luna

“Border Boy”

Unranked · 8-1 · striker · Orthodox · 22 · IQ C 59

Entram Gym · Mexico

Aleksandre Topuria

9.0%

Santiago Luna

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Luna 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Santiago Luna is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Luna (ground 81) into Topuria (TD reaction 67). Ground game is the clearest separator: Luna 81 (B+) vs Topuria 34 (D). Luna brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Topuria's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Luna

    Luna 81 (B+) vs Topuria 34 (D). Luna brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Topuria's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Luna

    Luna 77 (B+) vs Topuria 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Luna (8.2 SLpM at 58%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Topuria

    Topuria 67 (C+) vs Luna 50 (D). When the shot comes, Topuria stuffs it at 79% — Luna is at 68%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Topuria

    Topuria 49 (D) vs Luna 33 (D). Topuria's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Luna's entries.

Path · Topuria

Topuria has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Luna

Luna has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Topuria defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Topuria attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Luna is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Topuria is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -15 toward Topuria — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Luna 81 (B+) vs Topuria 34 (D). Luna brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Topuria's 79% takedown defense. Punching agility: Luna 77 (B+) vs Topuria 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Luna (8.2 SLpM at 58%). Takedown reaction: Topuria 67 (C+) vs Luna 50 (D). When the shot comes, Topuria stuffs it at 79% — Luna is at 68%.

The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Topuria attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TopuriaTraitLuna
74 B
IQ
59 C
34 D
Ground
81 B+
63 C+
Defense
73 B
49 D
Counter
33 D
63 C+
Reaction
58 C
53 C
Agility
77 B+
67 C+
TD react
50 D
84 A
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
39%
Decision
33%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

18%

R3

21%

Dist

33%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Luna (ground 81) into Topuria (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking differential

    -0.64 vs 6.47 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Luna

  • Damage ratio

    0.82 vs 4.74 landed/absorbed

    Luna

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 81

    Luna

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.93 vs 8.20

    Luna

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Luna

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Topuria

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 52%

    Topuria

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 68% hips on the shot

    Topuria

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Luna

  • Counter punching

    49 vs 33

    Topuria

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 74.0"

    Luna

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Luna

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Topuria

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Luna

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Luna (ground 81) into Topuria (TD reaction 67).

    Luna

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 58%

    Topuria

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Topuria

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 68%

    Topuria

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 22

    Luna

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Luna

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Topuria

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Topuria

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Topuria

Tape

TopuriaMetricLuna
2.93SLpM8.20
3.57SApM1.73
60%Str Acc58%
62%Str Def52%
1.50TD Avg4.21
33%TD Acc83%
79%TD Def68%
0.00Sub Avg0.84
0.10KD/150.31
5'8"Reach6'2"
30Age22

Aleksandre Topuria

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Santiago Luna

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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