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UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Jake Matthews 83% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev

Jake Matthews
AustraliaAustralia

Jake Matthews

“The Celtic Kid”

Unranked · 23-8 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 58

Nexus · Australia

VS
Tahir Abdullayev
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Tahir Abdullayev

“Tank”

Unranked · 20-3 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C+ 64

Phuket Top Team · Azerbaijan

Jake Matthews

82.5%

Tahir Abdullayev

17.5%

Model win probability · confidence 79%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Matthews 83 — the tape favors pocket striker

Jake Matthews is the model side at 82.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Matthews (ground 47) into Abdullayev (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Matthews 47 (D) vs Abdullayev 18 (D). Matthews brings 1.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Abdullayev's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Matthews

    Matthews 47 (D) vs Abdullayev 18 (D). Matthews brings 1.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Abdullayev's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Matthews

    Matthews 48 (D) vs Abdullayev 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Matthews (3.4 SLpM at 53%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Matthews

    Matthews 64 (C+) vs Abdullayev 57 (C). Matthews absorbs 3.42/min at 61% defense; Abdullayev is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Matthews

    Matthews 44 (D) vs Abdullayev 38 (D). Matthews's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Abdullayev's entries.

Path · Matthews

Matthews has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Abdullayev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Abdullayev

Abdullayev has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Abdullayev attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Matthews is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Abdullayev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Abdullayev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Matthews 47 (D) vs Abdullayev 18 (D). Matthews brings 1.4 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Abdullayev's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Matthews 48 (D) vs Abdullayev 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Matthews (3.4 SLpM at 53%). Striking defense: Matthews 64 (C+) vs Abdullayev 57 (C). Matthews absorbs 3.42/min at 61% defense; Abdullayev is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Abdullayev attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MatthewsTraitAbdullayev
58 C
IQ
64 C+
47 D
Ground
18 D
64 C+
Defense
57 C
44 D
Counter
38 D
63 C+
Reaction
60 C
48 D
Agility
39 D
53 C
TD react
59 C
81 B+
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
37%
Decision
39%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

17%

R3

20%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Matthews (ground 47) into Abdullayev (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.06 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Matthews

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 0%

    Matthews

  • Damage ratio

    0.98 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Matthews

  • Ground game (tape)

    47 vs 18

    Matthews

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.36 vs 0.00

    Matthews

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Matthews

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 68%

    Abdullayev

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Abdullayev

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Matthews (ground 47) into Abdullayev (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Matthews

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Matthews

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Abdullayev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Matthews

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 38

    Matthews

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Abdullayev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Matthews

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 29

    Abdullayev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Matthews

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 85%

    Abdullayev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Abdullayev

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 73.0"

    Matthews

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Matthews

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Matthews

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Matthews

Tape

MatthewsMetricAbdullayev
3.36SLpM0.00
3.42SApM4.60
53%Str Acc0%
61%Str Def68%
1.36TD Avg0.00
42%TD Acc0%
80%TD Def85%
0.71Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.12
6'1"Reach6'1"
32Age29

Jake Matthews

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Tahir Abdullayev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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