OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Tallison Teixeira 85% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira

Shamil Gaziev
BahrainBahrain

Shamil Gaziev

Unranked · 14-3 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ B 72

KHK MMA Team · Bahrain

VS
Tallison Teixeira
BrazilBrazil

Tallison Teixeira

“Xicao”

Unranked · 9-2 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 70

Team Lucas Mineiro · Brazil

Shamil Gaziev

14.9%

Tallison Teixeira

85.1%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Teixeira 85 — the tape favors pocket striker

Tallison Teixeira is the model side at 85.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Teixeira 67 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Teixeira absorbs 2.90/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Teixeira

    Teixeira 67 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Teixeira absorbs 2.90/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Teixeira

    Teixeira 75 (B) vs Gaziev 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Teixeira (4.8 SLpM at 73%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Teixeira

    Teixeira 66 (C+) vs Gaziev 35 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Teixeira.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Teixeira

    Teixeira 59 (C) vs Gaziev 38 (D). Teixeira's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Gaziev's entries.

Path · Gaziev

Gaziev wins by forcing the fight into takedown reaction and denying Teixeira a long look at durability.

Path · Teixeira

Volume. Teixeira wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Gaziev a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gaziev attacking ground game with takedown reaction.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Teixeira is built as: Pocket striker. Gaziev is built as: Pocket striker — elite sprawl, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Gaziev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Teixeira 67 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Teixeira absorbs 2.90/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM. Punching agility: Teixeira 75 (B) vs Gaziev 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Teixeira (4.8 SLpM at 73%). Timing & reaction: Teixeira 66 (C+) vs Gaziev 35 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Teixeira.

The finish path leans strikes (51% KO/TKO vs 7% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gaziev attacking ground game with takedown reaction. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GazievTraitTeixeira
72 B
IQ
70 B
33 D
Ground
38 D
26 D
Defense
67 C+
38 D
Counter
59 C
35 D
Reaction
66 C+
34 D
Agility
75 B
82 B+
TD react
65 C+
73 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
51%
Submission
7%
Decision
42%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

16%

R3

16%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -1.74 vs 1.95 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Teixeira

  • Damage ratio

    0.69 vs 1.67 landed/absorbed

    Teixeira

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs C+

    Teixeira

  • Striking efficiency

    47% vs 73%

    Teixeira

  • Striking defense

    41% vs 58%

    Teixeira

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Teixeira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows

    Teixeira

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Teixeira

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 59

    Teixeira

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Gaziev

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.84 vs 4.85

    Teixeira

  • Reach / length

    78.5" vs 83.0"

    Teixeira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Teixeira

  • Ground game (tape)

    33 vs 38

    Teixeira

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 26

    Teixeira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Teixeira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 75%

    Gaziev

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gaziev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 56 vs 50

    Gaziev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Teixeira

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Gaziev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gaziev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Gaziev

Tape

GazievMetricTeixeira
2.94SLpM4.85
5.48SApM2.90
54%Str Acc73%
42%Str Def58%
1.06TD Avg2.40
33%TD Acc30%
100%TD Def75%
0.26Sub Avg0.00
0.00KD/150.51
6'7"Reach6'11"
36Age26

Shamil Gaziev

L

Fighter 5293988

KO/TKO · R2 3:44

May 2, 2026
L

Waldo Cortes Acosta

KO/TKO · R1 1:22

Nov 22, 2025
W

Fighter 4869702

KO/TKO · R1 3:12

Feb 1, 2025
W

Fighter 4249193

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 3, 2024
L

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

KO/TKO · R4 5:00

Mar 2, 2024
W

Fighter 4406574

KO/TKO · R2 0:56

Dec 16, 2023

Tallison Teixeira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

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