OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Ikram Aliskerov 82% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov

Jared Cannonier
USAUSA

Jared Cannonier

“The Killa Gorilla”

#5 · 18-10 · striker · Switch · 42 · IQ C+ 61

MMA LAB · USA

VS
Ikram Aliskerov
RussiaRussia

Ikram Aliskerov

Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ B+ 79

KHK MMA Team · Russia

Jared Cannonier

18.2%

Ikram Aliskerov

81.8%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Aliskerov 82 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Ikram Aliskerov is the model side at 81.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Aliskerov 72 (B) vs Cannonier 26 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Cannonier's 100% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Aliskerov

    Aliskerov 72 (B) vs Cannonier 26 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Cannonier's 100% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Aliskerov

    Aliskerov 76 (B) vs Cannonier 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Aliskerov (5.6 SLpM at 67%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Aliskerov

    Aliskerov 70 (B) vs Cannonier 52 (C). Aliskerov absorbs 2.65/min at 57% defense; Cannonier is a softer target at 3.97 SApM.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Cannonier

    Cannonier 81 (B+) vs Aliskerov 63 (C+). When the shot comes, Cannonier stuffs it at 100% — Aliskerov is at 70%.

Path · Cannonier

Cannonier has to stuff the first takedown (81 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 70 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Aliskerov

Volume. Aliskerov wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Cannonier a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cannonier attacking counter punching with takedown reaction.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Aliskerov is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Cannonier is built as: Power striker — elite sprawl, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Aliskerov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Aliskerov 72 (B) vs Cannonier 26 (D). Aliskerov brings 3.8 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Cannonier's 100% takedown defense. Punching agility: Aliskerov 76 (B) vs Cannonier 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Aliskerov (5.6 SLpM at 67%). Striking defense: Aliskerov 70 (B) vs Cannonier 52 (C). Aliskerov absorbs 2.65/min at 57% defense; Cannonier is a softer target at 3.97 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (41% KO/TKO vs 17% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cannonier attacking counter punching with takedown reaction. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CannonierTraitAliskerov
61 C+
IQ
79 B+
26 D
Ground
72 B
52 C
Defense
70 B
59 C
Counter
52 C
57 C
Reaction
62 C+
50 C
Agility
76 B
81 B+
TD react
63 C+
77 B+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Decision
42%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

15%

R3

13%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.09 vs 2.91 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Aliskerov

  • Ground game (tape)

    26 vs 72

    Aliskerov

  • Damage ratio

    0.98 vs 2.10 landed/absorbed

    Aliskerov

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs B+ 79 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Aliskerov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Aliskerov

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 67%

    Aliskerov

  • Takedown reaction

    100% vs 70% hips on the shot

    Cannonier

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 3/0 UFC rows

    Aliskerov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Aliskerov

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.91 vs 5.56

    Aliskerov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Aliskerov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 72 vs 50

    Cannonier

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 57%

    Aliskerov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cannonier

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 52

    Cannonier

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 90% vs 70%

    Cannonier

  • Age-adjusted curve

    42 vs 33

    Aliskerov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Aliskerov

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 76.0"

    Cannonier

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Aliskerov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aliskerov

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Cannonier

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Cannonier

Tape

CannonierMetricAliskerov
4.25SLpM5.56
3.97SApM2.65
53%Str Acc67%
53%Str Def57%
0.77TD Avg3.82
45%TD Acc69%
100%TD Def70%
0.00Sub Avg0.70
0.50KD/150.42
6'6"Reach6'4"
42Age33

Jared Cannonier

L

Michael Page

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 17, 2025
W

Gregory Rodrigues

KO/TKO · R4 0:21

Feb 16, 2025
L

Israel Adesanya

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jul 3, 2022

Ikram Aliskerov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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