UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Featherweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Oct 1, 2026 · Aljamain Sterling 63% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos
USAAljamain Sterling
“Funk Master”
Champion · 26-5 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ B+ 81
Serra-Longo Fight Team · USA
ArgentinaKevin Vallejos
“El Chino”
Unranked · 18-1 · striker · Switch · 24 · IQ C+ 63
Brothers of Life MMA · Argentina
Aljamain Sterling
63.5%
Kevin Vallejos
36.5%
Model win probability · confidence 66%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Sterling 64 — the tape favors pocket striker
Aljamain Sterling is the model side at 63.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sterling (ground 54) into Vallejos (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Sterling 54 (C) vs Vallejos 23 (D). Sterling brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Vallejos's 82% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
SterlingSterling 54 (C) vs Vallejos 23 (D). Sterling brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Vallejos's 82% takedown defense.
- 02
Striking defense
SterlingSterling 93 (A+) vs Vallejos 72 (B). Sterling absorbs 1.58/min at 69% defense; Vallejos is a softer target at 2.46 SApM.
- 03
Fight IQ
SterlingSterling 81 (B+) vs Vallejos 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sterling (B+ vs C+).
- 04
Takedown reaction
SterlingSterling 86 (A) vs Vallejos 68 (C+). When the shot comes, Sterling stuffs it at 100% — Vallejos is at 82%.
Path · Sterling
Sterling has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Vallejos defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Vallejos
Vallejos has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 93 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sterling is built as: Pocket striker — high-IQ problem solver, elite sprawl. Vallejos is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is +19 toward Sterling — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Sterling 54 (C) vs Vallejos 23 (D). Sterling brings 2.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Vallejos's 82% takedown defense. Striking defense: Sterling 93 (A+) vs Vallejos 72 (B). Sterling absorbs 1.58/min at 69% defense; Vallejos is a softer target at 2.46 SApM. Fight IQ: Sterling 81 (B+) vs Vallejos 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Sterling (B+ vs C+).
The finish path leans the mat (28% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
23%
R2
14%
R3
15%
Dist
48%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Sterling (ground 54) into Vallejos (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
1.98 vs 3.66 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
VallejosGround game (tape)
54 vs 23
SterlingFight IQ
B+ 81 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
SterlingOutput (SLpM)
3.45 vs 6.12
VallejosStriking defense
70% vs 56%
SterlingGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SterlingTakedown reaction
100% vs 82% hips on the shot
SterlingPocket defense (tape)
A+ vs B
SterlingCounter punching
55 vs 39
SterlingStriking efficiency
58% vs 50%
SterlingAge-adjusted curve
37 vs 24
VallejosTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
SterlingCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
SterlingReach / length
71.0" vs 68.0"
SterlingDamage ratio
2.36 vs 2.49 landed/absorbed
VallejosStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Sterling (ground 54) into Vallejos (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
SterlingPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
VallejosStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 62 vs 50
SterlingRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 7/0 UFC rows
SterlingDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
SterlingTakedown mismatch
TD def 90% vs 82%
VallejosLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
SterlingChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Sterling
Tape
Aljamain Sterling
Fighter 4351319
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Brian Ortega
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4029275
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Calvin Kattar
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4205093
KO/TKO · R2 0:51
Fighter 3023388
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Fighter 2611719
KO/TKO · R2 3:44
Kevin Vallejos
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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