UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Bantamweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Otari Tanzilovi 62% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Otari Tanzilovi / KO/TKO)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
USAMalcolm Wellmaker
“The Machine”
Unranked · 10-2 · striker · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 64
Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts · USA
GeorgiaOtari Tanzilovi
Unranked · 10-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 74
Guram Fight Club · Georgia
Malcolm Wellmaker
38.0%
Otari Tanzilovi
62.0%
Model win probability · confidence 56%
Desk
38.0% / 62.0%
Market
64.4% / 35.6%
Moneyline
-196 / +173
Edge
−26.3% Tanzilovi
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Tanzilovi. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Tanzilovi 62 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Otari Tanzilovi is the model side at 62.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Wellmaker (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Tanzilovi 49 (D) vs Wellmaker 16 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Wellmaker's 85% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
TanziloviTanzilovi 49 (D) vs Wellmaker 16 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Wellmaker's 85% takedown defense.
- 02
Timing & reaction
WellmakerWellmaker 72 (B) vs Tanzilovi 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Wellmaker.
- 03
Fight IQ
TanziloviTanzilovi 74 (B) vs Wellmaker 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tanzilovi (B vs C+).
- 04
Takedown reaction
TanziloviTanzilovi 63 (C+) vs Wellmaker 55 (C). When the shot comes, Tanzilovi stuffs it at 69% — Wellmaker is at 85%.
Path · Wellmaker
Wellmaker has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Tanzilovi
Tanzilovi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Wellmaker defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Tanzilovi is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Wellmaker is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Tanzilovi — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Tanzilovi 49 (D) vs Wellmaker 16 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Wellmaker's 85% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Wellmaker 72 (B) vs Tanzilovi 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Wellmaker. Fight IQ: Tanzilovi 74 (B) vs Wellmaker 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tanzilovi (B vs C+).
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (57%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
19%
R2
12%
R3
12%
Dist
57%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Wellmaker (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
16 vs 49
TanziloviStriking efficiency
56% vs 75%
TanziloviFight IQ
C+ 64 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
TanziloviGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
TanziloviTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
WellmakerTakedown reaction
85% vs 69% hips on the shot
TanziloviStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Wellmaker (TD reaction 55). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
TanziloviReach / length
71.5" vs 70.0"
WellmakerAge-adjusted curve
32 vs 28
TanziloviTakedown mismatch
TD def 85% vs 69%
WellmakerPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
TanziloviStriking differential
1.58 vs 1.52 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
WellmakerDamage ratio
1.53 vs 1.50 landed/absorbed
WellmakerCounter punching
53 vs 54
TanziloviOutput (SLpM)
4.58 vs 4.53
WellmakerStriking defense
59% vs 59%
TanziloviPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
WellmakerCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
WellmakerRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
WellmakerStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
WellmakerLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
WellmakerChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
WellmakerDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Wellmaker
Tape
Malcolm Wellmaker
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Otari Tanzilovi
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.