OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Brendson Ribeiro 51% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Brendson Ribeiro / Submission)

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro

Felipe Franco
BrazilBrazil

Felipe Franco

“Negao”

Unranked · 11-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B 69

Galpao Da Luta · Brazil

VS
Brendson Ribeiro
BrazilBrazil

Brendson Ribeiro

“The Gorilla”

Unranked · 17-11 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 53

Brazilian TKO · Brazil

Felipe Franco

49.4%

Brendson Ribeiro

50.6%

Model win probability · confidence 43%

Desk

49.4% / 50.6%

Market

77.2% / 22.8%

Moneyline

-388 / +327

Edge

−27.8% Ribeiro

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Ribeiro. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Ribeiro 51 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Brendson Ribeiro is the model side at 50.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Franco 69 (B) vs Ribeiro 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Franco (B vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Franco

    Franco 69 (B) vs Ribeiro 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Franco (B vs C).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Franco

    Franco 51 (C) vs Ribeiro 36 (D). Franco's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ribeiro's entries.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Franco

    Franco 50 (D) vs Ribeiro 41 (D). Franco brings 3.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Ribeiro's 82% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Franco

    Franco 50 (C) vs Ribeiro 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Franco (1.8 SLpM at 65%).

Path · Franco

Franco has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ribeiro defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Ribeiro

Volume. Ribeiro wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Franco a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Ribeiro is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Franco is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -16 toward Franco — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Franco 69 (B) vs Ribeiro 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Franco (B vs C). Counter punching: Franco 51 (C) vs Ribeiro 36 (D). Franco's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ribeiro's entries. Ground game: Franco 50 (D) vs Ribeiro 41 (D). Franco brings 3.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Ribeiro's 82% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (31% KO/TKO vs 30% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

FrancoTraitRibeiro
69 B
IQ
53 C
50 D
Ground
41 D
61 C+
Defense
63 C+
51 C
Counter
36 D
61 C+
Reaction
64 C+
50 C
Agility
42 D
51 C
TD react
59 C
82 B+
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
30%
Decision
39%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -2.16 vs -0.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ribeiro

  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Franco

  • Striking efficiency

    65% vs 45%

    Franco

  • Damage ratio

    0.46 vs 0.86 landed/absorbed

    Ribeiro

  • Counter punching

    51 vs 36

    Franco

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.81 vs 3.04

    Ribeiro

  • Ground game (tape)

    50 vs 41

    Franco

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 81.0"

    Ribeiro

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Ribeiro

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Franco

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Franco

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 62%

    Franco

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Franco

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Ribeiro

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ribeiro

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 82%

    Ribeiro

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ribeiro

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 29

    Franco

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Franco

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Franco

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Franco

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Franco

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Franco

Tape

FrancoMetricRibeiro
1.81SLpM3.04
3.97SApM3.54
65%Str Acc45%
64%Str Def62%
3.02TD Avg0.85
38%TD Acc43%
73%TD Def82%
0.00Sub Avg0.57
0.22KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'9"
25Age29

Felipe Franco

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Brendson Ribeiro

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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