OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Leon Shahbazyan 62% · Submission · Round 1 · scored miss (Niko Price / KO/TKO)

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan

Niko Price
USAUSA

Niko Price

“The Hybrid”

Unranked · 16-11 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 56

Fight Me Combat Sports · USA

VS
Leon Shahbazyan
ArmeniaArmenia

Leon Shahbazyan

Unranked · 12-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ D 49

Glendale Fighting Club · Armenia

Niko Price

38.2%

Leon Shahbazyan

61.8%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

Desk

38.2% / 61.8%

Market

43.7% / 56.3%

Moneyline

+122 / -138

Edge

−5.6% Shahbazyan

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Shahbazyan. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Shahbazyan 62 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Leon Shahbazyan is the model side at 61.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Durability is the clearest separator: Price 85 (A) vs Shahbazyan 66 (C+). Price has been finished by strikes 0 times; Shahbazyan 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Price

    Price 85 (A) vs Shahbazyan 66 (C+). Price has been finished by strikes 0 times; Shahbazyan 0.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Shahbazyan

    Shahbazyan 69 (B) vs Price 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Shahbazyan (6.3 SLpM at 53%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Price

    Price 40 (D) vs Shahbazyan 32 (D). Price's return is the live one (0.39 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Shahbazyan's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Shahbazyan

    Shahbazyan 67 (C+) vs Price 59 (C). When the shot comes, Shahbazyan stuffs it at 79% — Price is at 81%.

Path · Price

Price wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Shahbazyan a long look at striking defense.

Path · Shahbazyan

Volume. Shahbazyan wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Price a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Shahbazyan is built as: Volume pressure striker. Price is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Price — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Price 85 (A) vs Shahbazyan 66 (C+). Price has been finished by strikes 0 times; Shahbazyan 0. Punching agility: Shahbazyan 69 (B) vs Price 57 (C). Hand speed / output lean Shahbazyan (6.3 SLpM at 53%). Counter punching: Price 40 (D) vs Shahbazyan 32 (D). Price's return is the live one (0.39 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Shahbazyan's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (43% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PriceTraitShahbazyan
56 C
IQ
49 D
37 D
Ground
42 D
68 B
Defense
73 B
40 D
Counter
32 D
60 C+
Reaction
62 C+
57 C
Agility
69 B
59 C
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
66 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
43%
Decision
27%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

20%

R3

22%

Dist

27%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    2.30 vs 3.95 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Shahbazyan

  • Damage ratio

    1.82 vs 2.66 landed/absorbed

    Shahbazyan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Price

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.11 vs 6.33

    Shahbazyan

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs D 49 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Price

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Shahbazyan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Shahbazyan

  • Counter punching

    40 vs 32

    Price

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 42

    Shahbazyan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 30

    Shahbazyan

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 53%

    Shahbazyan

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 55%

    Price

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Shahbazyan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Shahbazyan

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 74.5"

    Price

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Price

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Shahbazyan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Shahbazyan

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 79%

    Price

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Price

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Price

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Price

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Price

Tape

PriceMetricShahbazyan
5.11SLpM6.33
2.81SApM2.38
50%Str Acc53%
58%Str Def55%
1.06TD Avg1.46
30%TD Acc50%
81%TD Def79%
0.62Sub Avg0.00
0.39KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'3"
37Age30

Niko Price

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Leon Shahbazyan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

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