OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Oct 2, 2026 · Allen Frye Jr. 71% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Allen Frye Jr. / KO/TKO)

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris

Allen Frye Jr.
USAUSA

Allen Frye Jr.

“AJ”

Unranked · 6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 64

Brunsons MMA and Fitness · USA

VS
RJ Harris
USAUSA

RJ Harris

“The Hammer”

Unranked · 6-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 72

Sprawlin & Brawlin MMA · USA

Allen Frye Jr.

70.9%

RJ Harris

29.1%

Model win probability · confidence 66%

Desk

70.9% / 29.1%

Market

24.2% / 75.8%

Moneyline

+302 / -355

Edge

+46.8% Jr.

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Jr.. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Frye Jr. 71 — the tape favors pocket striker

Allen Frye Jr. is the model side at 70.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Ground game is the clearest separator: Harris 21 (D) vs Frye Jr. 12 (D). Harris brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Frye Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Harris

    Harris 21 (D) vs Frye Jr. 12 (D). Harris brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Frye Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Harris

    Harris 72 (B) vs Frye Jr. 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Harris (B vs C+).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Jr.

    Frye Jr. 85 (A) vs Harris 78 (B+). Frye Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Harris 0.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Jr.

    Frye Jr. 62 (C+) vs Harris 57 (C). Frye Jr. absorbs 3.83/min at 64% defense; Harris is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Jr.

Volume. Frye Jr. wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Harris a clean reset.

Path · Harris

Harris has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Frye Jr. defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Frye Jr. is built as: Pocket striker. Harris is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Harris — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Harris 21 (D) vs Frye Jr. 12 (D). Harris brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Frye Jr.'s 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Harris 72 (B) vs Frye Jr. 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Harris (B vs C+). Durability: Frye Jr. 85 (A) vs Harris 78 (B+). Frye Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Harris 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (65%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

Jr.TraitHarris
64 C+
IQ
72 B
12 D
Ground
21 D
62 C+
Defense
57 C
43 D
Counter
40 D
65 C+
Reaction
62 C+
44 D
Agility
41 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
6%
Decision
65%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

15%

R2

10%

R3

11%

Dist

65%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.1 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    -1.63 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jr.

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 0%

    Jr.

  • Damage ratio

    0.57 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Jr.

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.20 vs 0.00

    Jr.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Harris

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 21

    Harris

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 68%

    Harris

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jr.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Harris

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Jr.

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jr.

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jr.

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 40

    Jr.

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jr.

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 27

    Harris

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jr.

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Jr.

  • Reach / length

    80.0" vs 80.0"

    Jr.

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jr.

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Jr.

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jr.

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jr.

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Jr.

Tape

Jr.MetricHarris
2.20SLpM0.00
3.83SApM4.60
55%Str Acc0%
64%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.47
6'8"Reach6'8"
28Age27

Allen Frye Jr.

No recent UFC tape in the book.

RJ Harris

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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